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Setting the Stage – the 2009-10 Season

NBA camps are opening as we speak, and over the coming weeks we’re be breaking down all the specifics to get you prepared for your drafts. For now, however, let’s cast a wide net and get a refresh on off-season of player movement, project what Round 1 might look like in your league’s draft if it were to happen today, and take a look at the major storylines for each team heading into the 2009-10 preseason.

Changes of Addressa run-down of notable players with new digs

Vince Carter (from NJN to ORL)- takes over Hedo’s high-usage role with Magic; poised for another big season, with plenty of motivation on a contender near his hometown

Hedo Turkoglu (from ORL to TOR)- don’t expect a drop-off in offensive counting stats, but his roller-coaster FG% is a bit harder to gauge

Charlie VillanuevaCharlie Villanueva (from MIL to DET) – will play a ton and has career per-36 averages of 18.2 points, 1.2 threes, 8.6 boards, 0.8 steals, and 0.8 blocks

Ron Artest (from HOU to LAL) – a great mutual fit; he brings intensity they need and their stable of talent should help him improve his efficiency

Shawn Marion (from TOR to DAL) – the glory days have passed him by, but the long-time No.1 fantasy pick should flash plenty of game playing off Kidd and Dirk

Emeka Okafor (from CHA to NOR) – is there any reason to see sharing the court with CP3 as anything but a positive?

Ben Gordon (from CHI to DET) – back to super-sub role behind Rip after starting 76 games and averaged 37 minutes last season

Andre Miller (from PHI to POR) – Miller will help the Blazers speed up their plodding offense and frees Brandon Roy to concentrate a bit more on scoring the ball

Shaquille O’Neal (from PHO to CLE) – healthy and motivated in the wake of Kobe Bryant’s fourth ring, but regular-season numbers are not the focus here

Rasheed Wallace (from DET to BOS) – he’ll see consistent run behind KG and Perkins and you know he’ll love playing for a winner again

Allen Iverson (from DET to MEM) – just one season removed from massive numbers, but there are multiple offensive alpha dogs here and only one basketball

Trevor ArizaTrevor Ariza (from LAL to HOU) – the defense is ready for prime-time, but questions remain on offense; will have every opportunity to prove his worth

Courtney Lee (from ORL to NJN) – made 40% of his threes as a rookie and should pair splendidly with Harris; popular break-out candidate lasts until the late rounds

Ramon Sessions (from MIL to MIN) – would have been golden with the Knicks, but the opportunity to average starter’s minutes anywhere is a positive

Mike Miller (from MIN to WAS) – his role is a bit murky while everyone is healthy, but a solid rebound candidate nonetheless

Zach Randolph (from LAC to MEM) – he needs a lot of possessions to put up his “numbers”; the better you think he’ll do, the more you downgrade everyone else

Richard Jefferson (from MIL to SAS) – a great real-life match, but joining this roster assures that his downward fantasy trend continues

Randy Foye (from MIN to WAS) – out from under the microscope in Washington; a sensible late handcuff if you are heavily-invested in Gilbert Arenas

Tyson Chandler (from NOR to CHA) – no longer in the ideal team scenario, but his health will dictate his fantasy impact above all else

Antonio McDyess (from DET to SAS) – consistently underrated fantasy option in a great spot and once again one of my favorite late targets

Drew Gooden (from SAS to DAL) – brings a merciful end to Erick Dampier’s run as a starter; career per-30′s include 12.8 points, 8.4 boards

Jamal Crawford (from GSW to ATL)- he’s not without offensive skills, but efficiency-challenged and inherits a reserve role

Anthony Parker (from TOR to CLE) – his skill-set is a perfect fit on this team and looking like the starter at shooting guard in the wake of Delonte West’s arrest

Hakim Warrick (from MEM to MIL) – specific and somewhat limited fantasy potential, but his ability to score the ball helps him stand out on this roster

Jarrett Jack (from IND to TOR) – will once again see run at both guard positions and Calderon missed 14 games last season

Jason Kapono (from TOR to PHI) – his three-point prowess sets him apart on this roster, so deep-leaguers should at least take notice

Channing Frye (from POR to PHO) – his offensive skills do present some intrigue, but his defense could mean he’s never more than a matchup play

Darko Milicic (from MEM to NYK) – it’s okay to admit that a move to the D’Antoni system has you intrigued; career per-30 average of 2.1 blocks

David Andersen (to HOU) – 29-year-old Aussie can be described as “older, poor-man’s Andrea Bargnani” and will be in the starting mix for the Rockets

Brandon Bass (from DAL to ORL) – will play plenty during Shard’s suspension, but hard to foresee a consistent situation once he’s back

Sergio Rodriguez (from POR to SAC) – it’s not a stretch to call Rodriguez the team’s best point guard right now, but depth chart may not reflect that

Roto Round 1an early line on how Rd 1 breaks down
1. Chris Paul – a fantasy owner’s dream with zero downside
2. LeBron James – helped his roto stock with career-high 78% FT last season
3. Dwyane Wade – in the mix for the No.1 ranking if the three-point totals climb
4. Kevin Durant – sky is the limit, but AST:TO keeps him at No.4 for now
5. Danny Granger – ridiculous line, fantastic system, healthy knee
6. Kobe Bryant – gradually declining numbers are still phenomenal
7. Dirk Nowitzki – as consistent as they come in the roto game
8. Amar’e Stoudemire – Shaq is gone and fun-and-gun is back, but eye is a concern
9. Brandon Roy – already makes it all look easy, and Andre Miller only helps that
10. Chris Bosh – motivation and consistency are never a problem here
11. Pau Gasol – sterling 08-09 numbers could get squeezed a bit by Artest/Bynum
12. Al Jefferson – huge per-game numbers, now seven months removed from knee surgery

H2H Round 1an early line on how Rd 1 breaks down
1. Chris Paul – only unusual league settings remove CP3 from his perch
2. LeBron James – second pick in a h2h league isn’t a bad place to be
3. Dwyane Wade – Wade is the ultimate h2h consolation prize
4. Kevin Durant – provides a solid foundation in most categories
5. Dwight Howard – necessitates a very specific strategy, but very much worth it
6. Danny Granger – big-time offensive numbers and no slouch on defense
7. Kobe Bryant – no significant weaknesses means options moving forward
8. Amar’e Stoudemire – big-man stats galore as long as he’s in Phoenix
9. Dirk Nowitzki – punting STL or BLK makes sense once you land Nowitzki
10. Chris Bosh – like Dirk, puts your team’s focus on offensive efficiency
11. Deron Williams – garish AST totals can anchor a h2h squad
12. two at the turn: Roy+Gasol? Gasol+Jefferson? Roy+Nash?

Camp Quandariesteam-by-team player and position situations with fantasy implications

Atlanta
- is Josh Smith ready to get serious after a major regression at the tender age of 24? His physical talents have never been in question, but just about everything else usually is.
- does Jamal Crawford end up with more than the 25 minutes that Flip Murray saw last season? He’s a popular late-round pick, but Joe Johnson and Mike Bibby aren’t going anywhere.

Boston
- how close to 100% is Kevin Garnett? His health and how the team handles his minutes will have a trick-down affect amongst their bigs (Rasheed Wallace, Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis).

Charlotte
- Tyson Chandler had off-season surgery after dealing with a nagging ankle injury for most of the year, and his long-standing issues with turf toe were largely what nullified a trade to the Thunder last season. He’s clearly no sure thing, but he did finish third and second in boards per game in the two seasons prior to 2008-09′s let-down.

Chicago
- will Derrick Rose live up to the hype in re-draft leagues? Something to look for early is an improved long-range shot – without some threes, among other substantial improvements, it’s hard to see how he’ll warrant a third-round pick.
- Luol Deng is said to be fully recovered from a stress fracture in his shin, but we need to see him on the court to have any confidence.
- Tyrus Thomas quietly put together very good numbers down the stretch last year. Is this the year where he truly breaks out?

Cleveland
- even if you aren’t anticipating problems, seeing how LeBron James and Shaquille O’Neal play off each other has to be considered a major topic of interest.
- Delonte West‘s recent arrest has cast a cloud over at least his immediate future and opens things up a bit more for Anthony Parker at shooting guard.

Dallas
- Shawn Marion looks to be a great fit alongside Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Kidd, but how well he and Josh Howard coexist could ultimately determine their individual fantasy fortunes.
- Drew Gooden could emerge as a solid fantasy big as the team’s starting center.

Denver
- J.R. Smith is expected to start at shooting guard once his seven-game suspension ends, but it’s at least worth noting that Arron Afflalo made a higher percentage of his threes last season (40.2%) than Smith did (39.7%).
- Is Kenyon Martin really as healthy as he says he is? If there is a swan song, then he’s a late-round gem.

Detroit
- how exactly does the team keep both Richard Hamilton and Ben Gordon happy?
- who starts at center (Kwame Brown, Chris Wilcox, or Ben Wallace?) and does it matter for fantasy purposes?

Golden State
- how much more pronounced will Don Nelson’s dementia be this season?
- Anthony Randolph appears to have the skill-set and work ethic to shine, but he’ll need enough (consistent) playing time first and foremost
- what affect, if any, will Stephen Jackson‘s trade request have on a team that is already not known for stability?
- the fifth starting spot is up for grabs, and it come down to the play of Stephen Curry, Kelenna Azubuike, Anthony Morrow, and Brandan Wright.

Houston
- is Tim Grover truly a miracle worker? Tracy McGrady will certainly be a good litmus test.
- are Trevor Ariza and Aaron Brooks ready to be featured players?
- who starts in the frontcourt alongside Luis Scola, among Carl Landry, David Andersen, Joey Dorsey, and Chuck Hayes?

Indiana
- Mike Dunleavy‘s knee injury was being called just shy of career-threatening in April and now there’s talk of his being ready for opening day. Obviously, we need camp for some perspective here.
- can Roy Hibbert, fresh off a dominating summer performance, avoid foul trouble and emerge as a legit fantasy big?

LA Clippers
- Blake Griffin is said to be fully recovered from a shoulder injury suffered in summer league play, but nobody would mind some real proof early in camp.
- is this team going to pick up the pace, at least any time Chris Kaman isn’t on the court?

LA Lakers
- while Ron Artest‘s approach to the game should help the defending champs stay sharp, his career usage rate dwarfs that of Trevor Ariza and there are only so many possessions to go around. I’m particularly interested in seeing how Pau Gasol coexists with Artest and a healthy Andrew Bynum.

Memphis
- what happens when you take a promising group of young players and interject two veterans who rank among the all-time leaders in usage rate? I’ve got no idea, and I do not like the mix at all, but it should be interesting to watch in the very least.

Miami
- Jermaine O’Neal also worked with the aforementioned Tim Grover this off-season, and his recent injury history is only slightly better than T-Mac’s. If he can stay on the court, however, he’ll be a very solid return on a draft-day investment.
- Erik Spoelstra is expecting big things out of Michael Beasley, but we need to see where his head and his game are at in the wake of his rehab stint.

Milwaukee
- Michael Redd‘s offense is desperately needed on this club, but it’s hard to put a lot of faith in his surgically-repaired knee holding up under the pressure. He’s one to watch for some good signs early.
- while we know that Andrew Bogut‘s back is still not 100 percent, what is unknown is exactly how far away he still is at this point.
- is Brandon Jennings ready to play like Scott Skiles wants him to, and would a strong camp be enough for him to unseat Luke Ridnour as the team’s starting point guard?
- a forward or two will emerge with some fantasy relevance, so keep an eye on how things shake out between Hakim Warrick, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Carlos Delfino, Ersan Ilysova, and Joe Alexander.

Minnesota
- some positive early signs from Al Jefferson would help fantasy owners in terms of confidence when it comes to picking him around the Rd 1-2 turn
- what happens at shooting guard? Ramon Sessions will play off the ball at times alongside Jonny Flynn and, considering who is otherwise available to man the position (Damien Wilkins, Wayne Ellington, Sasha Pavlovic, Corey Brewer), it may not actually matter for fantasy purposes.

New Jersey
- the opportunity for Yi Jianlian to produce couldn’t be any better; so what can he do with it?
- Bobby Simmons is technically the incumbent at small forward, but he’ll get an immediate challenge from Terrence Williams, who projects to be inefficient but good for counting stats.

New Orleans
- Peja Stojakovic will likely settle in as a ridiculously high-paid reserve, meaning fantasy owners should turn their attention to Julian Wright for late-round defensive stats.
- keep an eye on Morris Peterson, a few years removed from fantasy relevance, as the expected starter at shooting guard.

New York
- Chris Duhon broke down after pushing 40 minutes per game for much of last season’s first half; how far does the team scale back his playing time this season?
- assuming Danilo Gallinari really is healthy, what is the scope of his role?
- are any of the bigs behind Al Harrington and David Lee really worth our attention? You’ve got to play to produce.

Oklahoma City
- summer league is one thing, but is Russell Westbrook ready to post a respectable FG% against some stiffer competition?
- we’re still not sure how the playing time will be delved out at two positions: shooting guard (James Harden, Thabo Sefolosha) and center (Nenad Krstic, Etan Thomas, Nick Collison).

Orlando
- while I don’t think he’ll be a drag on his teammates’ numbers, nobody can deny that there will be an adjustment process for Vince Carter and his teammates. The dynamic between VC and Dwight Howard bears watching, in particular.

Philadelphia
- the fantasy spotlight will be squarely on Elton Brand, now completely recovered from achilles and shoulder injuries (and looking svelte)
- Eddie Jordan’s motion offense produced fantasy stars in Washington, and this team isn’t short on talent, but who stands to benefit the most in Philadelphia?

Phoenix
- Amar’e Stoudemire‘s eye injury was unprecedented for an athlete at his level, so using a first-round pick on him is not without risk.
- is either Robin Lopez or Channing Frye going to emerge as the “other” big for the Suns, or are we headed for a platoon?

Portland
- how does Andre Miller‘s presence impact Brandon Roy‘s line? If the trade-off is fewer assists for more threes, then it’s a wash at worst.
- Greg Oden averaged six fouls for every 28 minutes of playing time over his final 34 games last season (including playoffs). If that stat doesn’t improve, then the concept of “upside” elsewhere is irrelevant.

Sacramento
- who plays point guard? Tyreke Evans is physically gifted, but facilitating for others is not high on his list of strengths. Incumbent Beno Udrih is overpaid and devoid of any real game-changing qualities. Sergio Rodriguez spent three years largely glued to Portland’s bench, but also can be looked at as something of a wildcard for that reason.

San Antonio
- the real unknown here is how much Gregg Popovich will look to limit Tim Duncan, Antonio McDyess, and Manu Ginobili (in particular) during the regular season, and that’s not something that we’re likely to get an answer to in camp.

Toronto
- there is a load of offensive talent here and it will be interesting to see how exactly Hedo Turkoglu‘s high-usage ways fit in. I’d like to see Jose Calderon shooting more threes playing off the ball a bit, for one.
- the minutes at shooting guard will come down to two players: DeMar DeRozan lacks polish but his athleticism stands out on this roster. Marco Belinelli‘s three-point prowess is a bit redundant alongside the starters, but he also managed per-36 minute averages of 3.6 assists and 1.5 steals with the Warriors last season.

Utah
- the nightmare scenario involving a completely unwanted Carlos Boozer spending the entire season on the roster doesn’t look completely unlikely at this point. Miami and Chicago have the pieces to make a deal, but would need to be properly motivated to rent Boozer for a matter of months.

Washington
- my guess is that you’ve heard nothing but good news about Gilbert Arenas to this point (yet another Tim Grover client), and he’s becoming less and less likely to last until the third round of your draft(s) as the days pass. Arenas will be the focus of as much attention as anyone in the league once camps open.
- shooting guard is one position that is up for grabs, with Mike Miller, Randy Foye, and DeShawn Stevenson (because everyone gets a fresh start under new head coach Flip Saunders) leading the competition.

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51 Responses to “Setting the Stage – the 2009-10 Season”

  1. dasein says:

    very nice roundup Matt.

  2. Cap. says:

    Can you see the Bulls trading Brad Miller for Richard Hamilton? I can’t see Gordon being happy coming off the bench again. I’m sure Dumars is trying to move Rip (for a C) but I doubt anyone is interested. Dalembert could be a possibility too, PHI would do that in a heartbeat. Or Kaman maybe?

    • jboldt73 says:

      I would rather see Dalenbert than Miller for Rip. but I do think there are enough minutes for Stuckey, Rip and Ben espcially if you put Rip at the 3 in a 3 G set. Looks like Wilcox is the frontrunner for the Center spot. watching them is going to be painful with NO one in the front court that plays D.

    • mbuser says:

      no way the bulls make that trade – rip is owed ~$50M through 2012/13. technically rip makes some sense on the 76ers, but i really would question the sanity of any team that acquire that massive commitment via trade – at least dalembert is “only” $24M for two more years. the clips don’t need a $50M backup for e.gordon. brad miller for carlos boozer straight up works and could end up making sense for both teams

      to add to what jboldt said, i think we’ll see gordon playing a little PG this season and see rip playing some SF to help make sure those guys are getting their minutes. agreed that it’s not going to be pretty

    • gallones says:

      the one thing i can say about that Cap is that Detroit after about 1/3 of a season with a Kwame/C. Wilcox front court rotation, the pressure is going to be on Dumars to make a deal for a REAL front court answer, and quit toying around with the Mohammeds, Amir Johnsons, Maxiells etc…that have plagued that position on the pistons for the past 4 years or so. But I am personally hoping they hold out and make a gigantic bid for Amare after this year

  3. hyde says:

    Im a big fan of durant, but in H2H im feeling 4 is too high.

    Simply because his production is very similar to that of dirk and bosh who are late first rd options in H2H.

    Can someone prove me wrong please lol (Don’t just say hes born in 88).

    • jeocon10 says:

      The difference is that both Bosh and Dirk have reached their highest production points. Durant still has lots to improve which we might see this year. There is still a lot of upside left in KD. He’s only been in this league for so long.

    • Lemmywinks says:

      Why can’t we point out the fact that Durant is 21 years old?

      Do you think that Dirk or Bosh will average 30ppg this season, or ever in their career?

      Durant should average in the 28-29ppg range this season, and 30+ after that.

      It’s all about ceiling.

      • mbuser says:

        i’m not sure he’ll regularly top 30ppg – it’s not because he can’t, but rather because this team has enough offensive talent to keep it from being necessity. what you have to look at is this kid’s 3PTM+STL+BLK potential as where the true upside lies – 1.5 3pt, 1.4 stl, 0.8 blk as a starting F last season… at age 20. the area where we’ll need to see real long-term improvement is AST:TO

        • Blood and Gold says:

          Concerning Nowitzki, I think his stats will decrease now that Marion and Gooden are in Dallas. What do you think ?

          • Warno says:

            I agree with the initial article.

            I think that Howard’s value takes the biggest hit, I don’t see Dirk’s value decreasing – maybe marginally but nothing to drop him out of the top 7.

        • hoppytime says:

          I have KD at 4 but can’t think why he isn’t 3rd. Is it just Wades assists that keep him in most peoples 3rd?

          • championvenom says:

            The assist difference is big, but I think Wade’s better pretty much across the board. Wade gets a lot more points, assists, steals, blocks, shoots a higher FG%. The only category Durant is significantly better in is FT%. And health issues of course.

  4. Touchmetallic says:

    Great read sir…I wanted to ask a few questions about a number of guys i had in mind…And they have all been answered here…

    Thank you…

  5. Chriskim4 says:

    Any news on Kevin Martin’s ankles?

  6. mr. gm says:

    KD: boo TO! I have him and his upside ranked 3rd 
    DG: is his knee really healthy? I have him ranked 7th

    As for Stevenson earning minutes, I think the WAS rotation shakes out like this:
    PG Gilbert Arenas (35 min)
    SG Mike Miller (24 min; works better off the ball, best veteran presence)
    SF Caron Butler (35 min)
    PF Antawn Jamison (35 min)
    C Brendan Haywood (25 min)
    6th man Randy Foye (24 min; offensive-punch combo guard off bench better fit here)
    Andray Blatche (17 min; can guard multiple positions, still holds upside)
    Dominic McGuire (13 min; a better Stevenson, has a more versatile game, younger)
    Javal McGee (13 min; was not invited to USAB camp for nothing)
    Nick Young (9 min; Saunders spoke about using him in some sets off-ball like Rip)
    Javaris Crittenton (9 min; only true back-up PG right here, still holds upside)
    Fabricio Oberto (1 min; crumbs/mop-up duty specialist)

    Deshawn Stevenson (odd man out, Saunders has failed to shed significant light on him)
    Mike James (which team hasn’t he played for?)

    • championvenom says:

      I would guess Foye gets the starting nod at SG over Miller. Simply because Miller is more versatile and spent time at 4 positions for Minnesota last season. that way he can come off the bench wherever they really need him.

      • mbuser says:

        foye’s numbers in MIN were dramatically better at SG than PG. i like him to win the competition as well, but i agree with mr. gm in that neither he nor miller will really spend that much more time on the court than the other no matter who starts

  7. hegotgame says:

    Buser, this post and the links are tremendous. Thanks for running the best fantasy hoops site. i now have a “comments” section in my draft sheet for many of your observations.

  8. hegotgame says:

    Also, I’m also intrigued by the Lakers frontcourt situation. Gasol’s numbers didn’t really pop last year until Bynum got hurt. I agree with you that he’s not a first rounder — some have put him there.

  9. mr. gm says:

    1st-round material for me. It was Odom who you should be worried about (I’m thinking 9 PPG/5 REB/1 ST/1 BLK). My beloved Lakers are just too deep, and w/ Bynum setting goals for All-Star status, you have to figure something has gotta give. You gotta trust me, I’m a Laker fan and follow virtually every game w/ my family.

  10. nsink says:

    I like the round-up nice article.

    For Denver i think from a fatasy perspective it’ll be interesting to see if Melo can get back to 49% FG shooting at 25 pts a game, now that the elbow is hopefully behind him.

  11. hegotgame says:

    how many minutes do you expect for Gallinari?

  12. Chriskim4 says:

    I can’t find the ADP page. Does anyone know how to get to it?

  13. hegotgame says:

    On Philly: everyone remembers that Brand really struggled to put up his typical production before he got hurt. But Iguodala’s numbers were really suffering during the adjustment period as well. It didn’t look like Iggy could put up the line people are expecting from him with Brand there… or is the thought that the two will learn to co-exist?

    • JohnBrown says:

      It’s because mo cheeks wasn’t utilizing Brand the way he should have. He was posting him up constantly which really isn’t Brands specialty. Hes more of a great pick and pop guy. Hopefully they’ll put him in those positions to utilize his great mid-range jump shot. If not, expect the same inconsistent numbers he was getting pre-injury.

  14. nsink says:

    Who is more dysfunctional The raiders or the the Warriors?

    Monta ellis says he can’t coexist in the backfield with Curry. ahaha

  15. Tall Tree says:

    I’m not sure why most people want to take Paul over Lebron. LBJ puts up dominant PG numbers one night and dominant PF numbers the next. And many nights he is a dominant PG/PF combined. All the while not clogging up one of those key spots on your roster as he chills in the SF slot.

    FG% = CP3 shot 50% to LBJ’s 49% but LBJ shoots way more so edge Lebron
    FT% = Paul
    3′s = Lebron
    Pts = Lebron
    rbs = Lebron
    ast = Paul but Lebron’s PG like ast numbers from the SF spot are a huge bonus

    blk = Lebron
    stl = Paul
    TO = basically dead even.

    Only one stat is a real blow out and that’s blocks in Lebron’s favor as Paul will go weeks at a time putting up goose eggs.

    I’ll take Lebron all day #1 overall then follow it up with a PG in round 2.

    • Goob says:

      Actually, Pauls FG% impact is larger than Lebron’s. The difference in steals is the largest impact of any of the stat comparisons between them by a HUGE margin, and the difference in FT% and assists are both as large as Lebron’s advantage in blocks. The comparison between the two for 1st spot in roto is not really that close.

      • So-Tex Spurs says:

        The only other argument you can make is that in a H2H league during championship week, you’ll be wondering if LBJ will get enough quality minutes to put up those “blow out” stats you’re talking about (DNP’s anyone?), while I’ll be starting CP3 knowing the Hornets can’t afford NOT to play him.

        Still, it’s basically 1 and 1a as far as those two picks go – but I’ll still take CP3 over LeBron any day. ;)

      • Tall Tree says:

        I can’t agree on FG% because Lebron shoots like 12-20 more times per week. I assume you mean because CP3 is a PG.

        Blocks are pretty huge. Off the top of my head I’ll say something like 100 to 10. Steals are what 200 – 150? That 150 is still a plus. I want it all with the #1 overall pick when I have no idea who I’m getting 23 picks later and the rest of the draft.

        BTW I only play H2H amongst friends. Roto is more of a true format but just not as fun for us. You may be right in roto.

        • Goob says:

          Lebron took around 24% more shots per game, but Paul was around 50% higher over average on FG%. That’s just on raw numbers. If you adjust by averages for position it’s a crazy-huge advantage.

          • Tall Tree says:

            I’ll take the high volume guy at 49%. When Lebron has a 4 game week in a H2H league the numbers he puts up are just devastating. Like I said before he’s like an All Star PF and PG rolled into one at the SF spot. An average week is high volume 49%FG, 78%FT. 7 3′s, 120pts 30bds, 30ast’s, 7stl, 5blks. That’s an average 4 game week. In a great week he can do that in 3 games. That’s an across the board foundation that’s unmatched. There are lesser versions of Chris Paul out there that can be had outside the first round. Lebron is a one of a kind player and therefor should be taken #1.

            • Goob says:

              You can take whomever you want, but you’re putting yourself in a hole by taking Lebron 1st. It’s not really that small a hole either, but hey..I took Lebron 1st in one league last year, and it probably cost me 1st place. 2nd was better than a sharp stick in the eye though.

            • Goob says:

              39/80 FG, 29/37 FT, 6 3s, 114 pts, 30 reb, 29 ast, 7 stl, 4 blocks
              32/64 FG, 23/27 FT, 3 3s, 91 pts, 22 reb, 44 ast, 11 stl, <1 block

              I’ll take line 2 every day, especially since Lebron’s FT shooting last year was by far his career best.

            • So-Tex Spurs says:

              “An average week is high volume 49%FG, 78%FT. 7 3’s, 120pts 30bds, 30ast’s, 7stl, 5blks. That’s an average 4 game week. In a great week he can do that in 3 games.”

              And again I’ll say this: during H2H championship week, when you’re sweatin’ if Coach Brown is gonna play your “high volume” guy or whether he’s gonna “rest” him for the playoffs, I’ll be starting CP3 with no worries whatsoever – because even though the Hornets want to go easy on Paul’s usage this year, he’s gotta play for them down the stretch in order for them to win.

              “There are lesser versions of Chris Paul out there that can be had outside the first round. Lebron is a one of a kind player and therefor should be taken #1.”

              There are lesser versions of LeBron James “out there” that can be had outside the first round as well! (Just gotta find ‘em, chief. ;) )

              CP3 is just as much “one of a kind”, and therefor should be taken #1 for those same reasons!

              And honestly, the only glaring difference I see between the two is FT%. I don’t care of LeBron James shoots 500 free throws more than Chris Paul – if he’s only going to make 78% of them – ehhhh, I’ll go with the guy who can hit his free throws.

              You want people to give the man his props? Tell him to hit 83% from the line along with the rest of his super-human stats. Is that too much to ask for a #1 overall?

  16. pt6776 says:

    CP3 is by far the #1 player. If you are a consistant winner in fantasy it is obvious so I won’t get into the numbers. I enjoyed it when he falls, just like I used to get Marion at 4-7 when he was number 1 each year. I think the difference b/w CP3 and LBJ is equal the difference of LBJ and Wade.

  17. JohnBrown says:

    King O’ Da Burbz here.

    I agree with cp3 as #1 pick over Lebron easily. That being said, when are you going to set up a message board Matt?

  18. zemenya says:

    Hey Matt, in a H2H league, with the FT% stat changed to FTM, how high does it make sense to take Dwight…?? Top 5? Top 3 after CP3 and LeBron…??

  19. SPBrook says:

    Looking for advice in H2H league:
    I was offered Dirk & Jose Calederon
    I would give up: Gilbert Arenas & Zach Randolph

    Rest of my team:
    Kevin Durant
    Andre Iguadala
    Stephen Jackson
    Al Harrington
    Mo Williams
    Shane Battier
    Ron Artest
    Chris Anderson

    Thoughts anyone?

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