The ping-pong balls have spoken and the Clippers will pick first on June 25, at which time they will select Blake Griffin. That leaves a month before picks are made that actually count, and plenty can and will happen in the interim. With that said, there are no shortage of early mock drafts now that the lottery order has been set. Even if we can’t say with any amount of certainty who is going to end up where, these early mocks give us a chance to see what the early buzz is all about and allows us to get more familiar with the top draft prospects.
There was no shortage of impact rookies in 2008-09, with Brook Lopez, O.J. Mayo, Derrick Rose, Eric Gordon, Russell Westbrook, Mario Chalmers, Michael Beasley, Kevin Love, and Marc Gasol leading the charge. Let’s get an early look at who might end up where as we start scouting the potential 2009-10 rookie class. We’ll use four mock drafts for reference: DraftExpress, NBADraft.net, RealGM, and ESPN. An asterisk (*) denotes the highest projected draft slot for the player.
Some of the notable post-lottery buzz:
• The Mavs could have interest in one of the Clippers’ big men – as well as Baron Davis, depending on what happens with Jason Kidd – but the following blurb is what stuck out in this piece from the Star-Telegram:
The Thunder is expected to make a play for Griffin, using the third pick and one of their young core players (Jeff Green or Russell Westbrook) as bait for the top overall pick, which would allow them to keep Griffin in his hometown. That would be a huge move in terms of local interest and, by extension, ticket sales.
And, according to The Sacramento Bee:
One league source on Wednesday even indicated the seemingly unthinkable, that the Clippers would be willing to trade the top pick – which they have already confirmed would be Griffin – for the right package.
• Stephen Curry to the Knicks seems like the closest thing to a lock as Griffin coming off the board first. It’s very unlikely that anyone in the top seven has him high enough on their draft boards and, sticking with “all we care about is the summer of LeBron” theme, figure having his quasi-buddy on the roster won’t do anything but help whatever chances they already feel they have.
• Carlos Boozer appears ready to opt out of the final season of his current deal in order to seek a long-term contract. Boozer has said he’d like to return to the Jazz, but has to also be aware that he’d immediately become the marquee player on the free agent market if he did terminate his deal. Another interesting note from The Salt Lake Tribune:
He also is believed to have received assurances from Jazz CEO Greg Miller that the team wants him back in Utah. The Jazz have operated on the assumption that Boozer will opt out, because of his December comments stating as much. Jazz General Manager Kevin O’Connor declined to comment on what assurances the franchise had given Boozer.
• Figure on the Raptors being particularly active this off-season:
With shooting guard Anthony Parker and small forward Marion free agents, and franchise cornerstone Chris Bosh unwilling to commit to the club after next season, when he’s eligible to become a free agent, the Raptors could easily lose three starters this summer. With some luck, the Raptors might be able to get a player in return for Marion by way of a sign-and-trade deal, but those are not easy to facilitate. Bosh won’t be traded without the Raptors getting some true assets in return. Though if he goes, it will be hard to make happy faces around the idea the club will have lost arguably the best player in their history just as he’s entering his prime. No wonder the Raptors, according to team sources, are actually looking hard at buying a second pick even if this year’s draft is more about role players than star power.
What about this scenario: Bosh and the No.9 pick for Rudy Gay and the No.2 pick. The Grizz address the gaping hole in their starting lineup and still have a high pick and cap to sign a small forward, and the Raptors end up with a core of Calderon/Gay/Bargnani/Thabeet. Seems like a win-win to me, assuming Bosh doesn’t re-up with the Raptors and wouldn’t choose retirement over playing in Memphis.
• And click here for a nice run-down from DraftExpress, highlighted by this doozie:
“Rubio doesn’t want to go to Memphis, and he especially does not want to pay money out of his own pocket with that huge buyout for the honor of doing so. Fegan [Rubio’s agent] wants him in L.A., and if he can’t have him there, he wants him in Sacramento. Definitely not Oklahoma City.” … Fegan is already highly experienced in these matters, having unsuccessfully attempted to navigate fellow client Yi Jianlian towards the team of his choice in the 2007 draft, only to see Milwaukee foil his plans and pick him anyway. This time, though, he has a lot more leverage, as Rubio would likely have no problem staying in Badalona for another year or two or more if push came to shove. His buyout after all, is yet to be resolved, which in this case may actually be an advantage.
• The other nugget from DraftExpress that was of particular note was that the Bulls are reportedly shopping Tyrus Thomas heavily around the league.
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sheesh it’s a coin-flip....
Haha, shut me up! They’ll regret trading Thomas one day. Who do they think they’ll get with him and Hinrich? Bosh, Amare? I doubt it.
I also doubt Bosh would want to play in Memphis, one of the few worse teams in the league. I’m sure he’d much rather resign with the Raps and finish what he started. It’s a good idea from both teams standpoints, but not for Bosh, and ultimately it’s his decision. I think the only teams he’d be interested in are Miami, New York, Chicago, Dallas, Golden State, Detroit and possibly Houston. The chances of him resigning are better now that Triano got extended though, him and Bosh are tight, and I’m sure that had something to do with Colangelo bringing Triano back for another 3 years. Worse comes to worse, the Raps don’t get an offer they like from any of those teams this summer (unlikely), and they play out the season in hopes of making the playoffs and convincing him to stay. The Marion issue comes first though. We’ll take Tyrus. Could be the gritty defensive stopper the Raps are missing.
Well, I guess Vinny DIDN’T read the Thomas memo after all…
I feel for you Bulls fan!
that first question is a good one. i guess they intend to find out, it would have to be a more post-oriented PF, if the line of thinking is that there is redundancy between him and noah, but not sure who exactly they have in mind
Oh yeah, who would want two young defensive minded big men on their team? They got enough scorers already, but maybe David West could be another option for Chicago.
Also, found an article (from May 7th) about a possible Beasley-Bosh trade happening, in hopes of convincing Wade to stick around. I wouldn’t be totally opposed to that, depending on what else the Heat were offering, and what (SG) the Raps can get for Marion.
http://www.prosportsdaily.com/comments/trading-beasley-for-bosh-could-be-heats-wisest-move-233692.html
And some other irrelevant Raptors moves could be signing Toronto native Magloire as a backup (finally), and bringing Delfino back.
keep in mind that trade is the columnist’s suggestion, not some front office chatter than he’s passing along. with that said, the package for bosh would have to be beasley/haslem/james jones to get the salaries to match up (~15M)
Yeah true, but it does make a lot of sense for Miami. They’re clearly not contenders anymore, and their only real hope of retaining Wade is to make some drastic changes ala Ainge. Bosh is the perfect answer, especially with their friendship. If they wait until Bosh opts out in hopes of keeping Wade, Beasley, and Bosh intact, they risk losing Wade AND Bosh to other (better) suitors like Cleveland/NY. Toronto is almost forced to rebuild around Bargnani and Calderon, so might as well get a lottery pick in return, and Haslem is a good, tough, replacement. I’m not sure if Jones is the clincher, if we could get Chalmers instead that’s a no-brainer, but even that would create a logjam at PG. Some future draft picks might help. I don’t want to lose Bosh, but if we have to we might as well get a Randolph, or a Beasley, or a Lee in return. I’d love Gay and Thabeet, but I don’t think Bosh would go for it.
Ok, maybe Miami is not as desperate or in jeopardy of losing Wade as I made them sound, but I think any chance to pair up Wade and Bosh for the next 10 years can’t be considered a bad move, even if they’re giving up a #2 pick, who didn’t quite live up to his potential this year.
miami will be in a great position to make drastic moves this season and next. they have over $40M in expiring contracts this season and have only player options (wade) and team options (beasley, j.jones, d.cook, chalmers) on the books for 10/11. wade will certainly be due a raise, but they should have immense amounts of flexibility either way
bosh has the first move in all this (accepting or declining his extension offer) and then it’s going to get very interesting, either way
I just hope Bosh has the decency to tell Colangelo his intentions this summer rather than next year when his trade value isn’t as high. The last thing this city needs is to lose another star for nothing (Sundin, Burnett, Carter)! I trust BC, but I’ll be so pissed if Bosh walks, just look at all the talent the Raptors have squandered!
What could have been…
D.Stoudamire
C.Billups
T.McGracy
M.Camby
A.Mourning
V.Carter
J.O’Neal
(S.Marion)
(C.Bosh)
colangelo has already said that the issue of his extension will in fact be dealt with during the summer
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=ap-raptors-colangelo&prov=ap&type=lgns
I think fantasy owners need to we wary about picking rookies this year. We got spoilt with the quality of rookies last year and from what Im hearing, we shouldnt expect the same from this lot. Outside of Griffin, Rubio, and maybe Thabeet, depending where they all end up, I dont think I’d burn a draft pick on any of them. But I dont follow college ball, so am interested to hear from anyone who thinks there are others who could have an impact.
it’s always wise to be a bit skeptical about rookies. beyond the big three for year one, i think james harden, jordan hill, tyreke evans, stephen curry, dejuan blair, jonny flynn, terrence williams, eric maynor, sam young, and tyler hansbrough could be worth keeping an eye on depending on where they end up
A player I’m having a tought time gauging is Terrence Williams. Based on only a handful of games of his he seems to be up and down, just like these mocks. I always thought of him as a late 1st rounder who is a semi-project player. Some mocks have him in the lottery, am I missing something?
no i think you’ve got it almost precisely to be honest – that’s why he’s as high as 9 and as low as 28 in those 4 mocks. consistency was one of his biggest issues and he went back and forth between big games and zero-impact performances. what is to like about him is that overall he did show improvement during his four years, and those four years have him a bit more “NBA ready” than most
what type of system he ends up in could have a big impact on his fantasy prospects, but in general think good counting stats (1.5 3pt, 8.6 reb, 5 ast, 2.3 stl as a senior) and bad efficiency (.431 FG%, .581 FT%)
My Pistons had Terrance Williams, they seem to be wanting to get a player that can play the 3 and 4 backing up Tay and whoever they bring in to replace Wallace.
There is a rumor that the Pistons are going after David West, NO is wanting to clear cap space. I would love to see West in a ‘Stones uni next year.
man paul would be jacked, i bet. west is actually reasonably-priced relative to his production (9.1, 8.3 over the next two season). they really need to find a way to move peja (14.2, 15.3) or chandler (11.9, 12.8), but that could take a miracle
I wouldn’t blame CP3 if he refused to play for the Hornets if they traded West for a bunch of garbage. I already feel bad for him that he’s stuck on a mediocre roster, losing David West would be a disaster.
Matt, what do you think about Jeff Teague? I really didn’t follow college basketball last season because Tyler Hansbrough and Blake Griffin were the marquee players and I could care less about them.
But for whatever reason, there’s something about Jeff Teague that I like. I see one of the mock’s have Teague coming to the Hawks, and I’d be really happy about that. If he ended up being decent maybe I could get over the fact that we passed on CP3. I read somewhere that he’s comparable to Monta Ellis, but I think it’s kinda dumb to say that he won’t turn into a good passing PG. It’s hard to accumulate assists when every team you face plays zone defenses.
So what do you think of him? Would it be a gift if the Hawks got him at 19?
he looks likes he’s got decent potential, but i wouldn’t look at him as a gift at 19 or any relief from passing on paul – not that a ‘decent’ player could do that anyway. he’s more athletic than acie law (but not quite at ellis’ level) and further along than he was at the same age, but they both were much better creating their own shot than one for teammates. in teague’s case, we’re talking about a guy that had more than 5 assists seven times in 61 games. even when you factor in zone defenses, a 1:1 AST:TO for someone you are calling a PG is far from ideal. he’s got a solid enough jumpshot though and wouldn’t need to dominate the ball alongside jj
my guess is that eric maynor is a more productive pro, and i’d call ty lawson a gift if you were able to draft him at 19 instead
Lebron. Wow. That made Jordan’s “shot” in Cleveland look like an uncontested layup by a reserve in garbage time in the first game of a season. 10 years from now we’ll look back at that as the defining moment of his hall of fame status. Now all he has to do is win 6 championships.
ya, that was something. K I’ll admit I don’t have much experience with all this, this is my second season becoming a NBA junkie, but wow this playoffs has been awesome to watch. Are they normally like this? 4 ot games in the Boston/Chicago series, some nailbiters for the laker fans out there, a plethora of last second winners, Denver pushin like their very lives depended on it. And the regular season too, remember the Dwayne Wade winner on the 2OT against Chicago? Many epic moments this year. Definately keeps ya comin back. I mean fantasy season has been over awhile now and I’m still checkin this site. That says something I guess… :+)
I’ve only watched a couple years. The 1st round always seems to be the best, then I lose interest because the playoffs go on forever.
Cavs vs. Wizards were good. Cavs vs. Pistons. Hawks vs. Celtics, Celtics vs. Cavs… There are usually a few really good series. And the Finals are always disappointing. But Melo vs Lebron would be great. I hope the Nuggets can go up 3-1 on the Lakers. And I think the Magic and Cavs will go 7 games.
some early draft measurements are in
http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-pre-draft-measurements/measurements.php?year=2009&sort2=DESC&draft=0&pos=0&sort=2
a few big men that stood out:
dejuan blair is only 6’5″ish, but his standing reach is the same as horford, d.lee, haslem, t.murphy, among others, and at 277 lbs i don’t see him having a problem boxing any of those players out
tyler hansbrough measured out pretty well. if he falls to OKC (25) or MEM (27), they are going to be happy
thabeet measures the same height as mutombo coming out of college, but 40 lbs heavier. javale mcgee and deandre jordan’s wingspan measurements were the same as thabeet
things come into a bit more focus once things like speed, agility, and vertical start to get recorded