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The methodology will be simple – I’ll post a poll with a number of players to choose from, and the player with the most votes gets the nod for that position. Polls will stay live for 24 to 48 hours – if there is a run-away winner, we’ll come in on the short side, and if it’s close between two or more players, we’ll leave it open a bit longer. As for settings, assume whichever you personally prefer – the rankings should skew towards whatever settings the consensus uses, as well.
Note: closed polls immediately show up on the “Polls Archive” page, so you’ll be able to track voting there as we move along. I’ll make a new post every so often, as to avoid getting multiple pages deep in terms of comments. If you have an active conversation going in the previous post(s), by all means keep it going – just start new conversations here.
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sheesh it’s a coin-flip....
It’s about time Kevin Martin gets some love…
Billups? Camby? Both finished in the top 25 by season average, seems like they could at least be listed.
If I had Camby in a keeper league I would trade him for any player on this list.
chauncey is just a few names down the list, but camby is 35, missed 20 games, and averaged 7/8/1.6 after the break
Ok, now someone has to explain the Rudy Gay love to me. I feel like I would take just about anyone on the list over him after last season. I mean his average per game Yahoo Rank is 120. He also declined slightly in literally every single fantasy category while playing the same amount of minutes. He dropped in FG%, FT%, 3PM, PTs, Reb, Assists, Stl, and Blk, while his TOs rose at the same time.
Considering those drops I have to think that as the guys around him (Mayo, Conley, and Gasol) all continue to get better it will just eat into his stats.
(I made these same points on the last one but didn’t get much response so I felt compelled to ask again with Rudy winning.)
Explanation shouldn’t be needed. It’s almost ridiculous how much upside Rudy Gay has. He had a disappointing season, it happens. Doesn’t mean he’s suddenly not one of the top young players in the game.
In my opinion, he has a very similar game to Granger’s. This time last year if there was a poll that asked who was more likely to average 26 pts, 5 reb, 3 ast, 1 stl, 1.5 blk in ’08-’09 between Gay and Granger I bet 80% of the people would’ve voted Rudy Gay.
When Granger was 22, he was only averaging 7.5 pts, 5 reb, 1.2 ast, 0.4 3ptm, 0.7 stl, and 0.8 blk. So Rudy Gay is way ahead of the curve.
I traded Rudy Gay at the beginning of the year in my keeper league, so I didn’t really pay much attention to him. But from what I heard, too many of his shots were forced. So I blame that on Conley. I expect Conley to continue to get better.. That won’t negatively affect Gay, that should help Gay.
And I don’t see Mayo having a complete game. I see him being another Kevin Martin/Ben Gordon/Michael Redd type.
Rudy Gay has the most potential to be a superstar on that team.
Really? I saw him as a guy who put up excellent numbers on a team with little to no talent. They got a few better players (Conley, Mayo, Gasol) and his numbers got worse in every single category. If all of those guys keep improving, I don’t see how it can help Gay’s numbers. One good season and one disapointing one seems a little dangerous to me when you could wind up with a guy who was ranked 120th in the NBA on yahoo’s average ranks.
Granger improved every year too, he didn’t have a decline after his first good season. I’m not saying Gay isn’t a good player or that he should be considered a little ways down the line, but outside of the guys with injury concerns, it seems like most of those other guys are better numbers.
And I agree with Mayo not being a fully complete player, but could see Kevin Martin numbers with more assists and another rebound or so.
i’ve been wondering for some time if the problem isn’t with the gay/mayo pairing. factor in conley’s ‘emergence’ and you’ve got two high-usage guards that could marginalize him to an extent on offense. i’m sure everyone is aware of the lackadaisical tag that has followed him, something that could re-emerge if he doesn’t feel like he’s getting the ‘touches’. i do agree that he’s got tremendous upside in general, but unless those d-stats start to really spike, i can’t help but wonder about when the total package comes together to push him to the elite
You can’t blame a guy for being unmotivated in Memphis. It probably gets pretty depressing playing in front of only 7,000 people every night.
He’ll mature, gain experience. Rudy Gay is probably the perfect “buy low” guy. A lot of people are down on him, but I highly doubt he peaked his sophomore season as a 20 year old.
well thats kinda my point. you can’t blame a guy for being unmotivated in that scenario, but it’s still not something that would happen to everyone. with that said, i would hope nobody is suggesting that he’s peaked – i know i’m not. what’s more at issue is what his peak is and how long it will take him to reach it
Also, let’s not forget that this guy was a dog in college. It’s was a big reason why his team lost to George Mason and why his draft stock slid considerably. I wouldn’t even consider keeping or drafting a guy like him (very questionable attitude, effort, & work ethic) within the first 3 rounds. I really think that there’s a better than 50% chance that his season 2 stats are the best that we’ll see from him.
Yes, Ashley, at a certain point there is definitely value in drafting a player like Gay; especially if he really slides in drafts coming off his disappointing season. However, that point should be well after pick #30, which was the point of the original post.
Didn’t Josh Smith have just about as bad a season as Gay….he’s ranked 18th here….where’s the hate on him?
that’s some good perspective. gay’s 3PTM was what regressed more than anything this past season. clearly he doesn’t have smith’s potential in combined D stats (REB/STL/BLK) but he’s got more offensive polish
as a team, the grizz shot 8.2 fewer threes per game this season (13.5) than last (21.7), something that was at least partially due to a decline in pace (from 95.3 to 90.1). their team FG% stayed exactly the same (45.6), but their scoring fell (from 100.7 to 93.9) and their team defense improved about the same amount (from 106.9 to 99.3)
for gay to thrive again, we may need the grizz to pick up the pace a bit. how much can/will it recover with marc gasol as the starting center?
The last three points are good, but I want to comment on this “unmotivated” angle.
Yes, you can’t blame the guy for being unmotivated in Memphis – but you can blame him for not being the guy to change that team’s work ethic. And before you say that’s asking too much of a young player, remember this: you can’t blame LeBron James for being unmotivated in Cleveland. You can’t blame Michael Jordan for being unmotivated in Chicago.
What?!?
Exactly!!! When LJ was drafted, the consensus was that Cleveland became an instant contender. But it’s taken some time, a lot of hard work, AND a GOOD WORK ETHIC! (btw, I’m not screaming, I just don’t know if the italics would show up in the post) When MJ was drafted, nobody said “There goes the best basketball player to ever play the game – at #3 overall!” It took time (roughly seven years!), a lot of hard work, AND a GOOD WORK ETHIC!
The bottom line is you bring your motivation to where you are, and build up from there. MJ did that in Chicago, LJ is doing that in Cleveland.
Now, Gay is no LeBron, and certainly no MJ! But I’d bet good money that there are several of other guys, both in front of and behind Gay’s #30, who work just as hard as LeBron does. It’s not their work ethic that’s in question – it’s simply their talent level.
So for me, being unmotivated because he’s in Memphis doesn’t fly as an excuse!
Next year will say a lot about Rudy Gay. He was playing with a lot of new players last year, and they’re a really really young team. They’ll be more familiar with each other next year and more experienced. I’d be willing to take a chance on Gay in the 3rd round. He’s too talented and I think he’ll get back on track.
It’s kinda silly to compare Gay to Lebron and MJ. The whole country was watching Lebron’s debut. I even remember it! I was 16 or 17, his first game was against the Kings. Lebron was “the chosen one” from day one. A lot more pressure on him. Meanwhile in Memphis, 15 people watch the Grizzlies play. So it’s a lot easier for Gay to not be as motivated. I guarantee you if Gay was playing for the Knicks or Mavs or basically anywhere other than Memphis, he’d be averaging 22+ ppg.
It’s too early to throw in the towell for Gay. He can easily average 20 pts, 5.5 reb, 3 ast, 1+ 3ptm, 1+ stl, 1+ blk. Like I said, I’ll be trying to buy low on him next year.
Ash, that’s my point, though!
You feel if he was anywhere other than Memphis, he’d be averaging 22+, right? I feel if he was truly as committed a player as he could be, he’d be averaging 22+ IN Memphis! He’d be the one the rest of the team looked to for work ethic. He’d be the one the veterans would say, “Wow, this kid works as hard as anyone else in the league, maybe harder!”
So far, I’m just not seeing that from him.
But don’t get me wrong – I’m not selling you short on your points. Gay’s at a tipping point here where he could go one of two ways – rebound and have a fantastic year next season, or simply fall by the wayside – another example of a very talented player who just didn’t have the work ethic it takes to make it to the next level (that level being All-Star caliber at least).
I feel to take the chance on Gay at 30 or higher is as big of a dice roll as taking a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd overall rookie in that same slot.
If you feel it in your gut, though, go for it – but I think we need to wait and see how he develops next year, get some semblance of a track record. See if he can respond in a positive way to his situation. Then I’ll go looking for him.
And if it ends up I’m having to buy high from you, well so be it! You called it – scoreboard!
No OJ Mayo love either? I could see him putting up around 23 pts, 2 threes, 4-5 assists, 4-5 rebounds, and around a steal and a half a night as soon as next season (with an excellent FT%). And that would be in just his second year, am I overestimating him here?
in terms of counting stats, clearly mayo is going to be a good one (although i’m not anticipating his AST going up too much). what you’ve got to consider in his case is high TO, low (or averageish) FG% with high volume, and marginal steals
That’s true. I think I tend to overestimate him because I love watching a player with a gorgeous jump shot too much.
They look even prettier when they go in!
With Paul at 2…Lopez at 21….Aldridge at 24….Gay at 30…..Murphy at 31……Bargnani, Arenas and Boozer just waiting to be added to this list it looks like I’ve got a lot to think about…..and a stellar team!
Gotta narrow my list down to 4 but I think my league’s gonna have us keep 7 for offseason trading….gotta narrow my list down to 7! I think I wanna cut Murphy….thoughts?
don’t cut murphy he is great throw-in trade bait right now I’d keep him just for offseason trading maybe try and do an aldrdge or Gay and murphy for Al jeff trade
Bargnani and murphy are very similar except Murphy gets more boards while Bargnani blocks some. I’d try and package one of those with either gay or aldrige (i’d try gay first but after last season he probably wont be as tradeable as aldridge) and go after Roy or Al jeff. YOu could try and shoot for Granger or Durant but I doubt you could get them. Maybe try amare as his value is depressed right now.
if you can trade, absolutely try. i’d shop arenas to see if anyone in your league is particularly high on him
What do you think of Lamar Odom for next season? If he gets out of Los Angeles as a free agent, couldn’t he reasonable get back to 06-07 numbers?
it would really depend on where he happened to end up, but at 29 he’s certainly got a few “good” years left in him
i actually went with tyrus thomas here (and last poll). i can really see him putting a sustained top-20 run for a number of years, and it could start as early as next season
#40 in BBM per-game rank in the season’s second half. over his final 41 games (31 mpg): 13.3 pts (.475 FG%, .776 FT%), 7.5 reb, 1.3 stl, 2.1 blk, 1 ast, 1.9 to
with more minutes and slight improvements on offense… next season could determine whether or not he’s “stro show” part II but at this point i’m willing to take the chance
In my opinion, the next player to be ranked should either be Conley or Bargnani. If Tyrus was guaranteed 30+ minutes a night, then he could definitely be a top 20 player. Unfortunately, his minutes faded over the course of the 7 game Celtics series and his future role with the Bulls is a little up in the air. The Chicago sports talk radio shows keep bringing up that he still does not have a very good b-ball IQ (floor spacing, when to take his shots, help defense, etc.) and that is why Vinny is very hesitant to use him down the stretch in close games. It would not be a total shock to see him packaged with some of their expiring contracts for another player.
Meanwhile, Conley and Bargnani seem to be locked into starting roles and they should both top 35+ minutes a night (possibly 40+ minutes a night in Conley’s case). I think they are both safer options than Tyrus and they also have the upside to finish as top 20 players.
Yeah I agree.. Tyrus picks up too many stupid fouls from being overly aggressive. It seems like anytime an opponent within 5 feet of him gets a rebound, Tyrus just HAS to swipe at the ball and ends up getting called for a foul half the time instead of just going back on defense.
During the Boston series it seemed like he would sit out for quarters at a time.. So yeah, Conley’s minutes will probably be more consistent.
I went with Westbrook last poll and Conley this poll. But it was between Conley and Tyrus.. I had both last year and I really like their upside.
Ashley, you seem to know your stuff so can you please tell me why you have such high regards for Westbrook as a keeper? All I see is another pretty good pro player whose game does not translate too well for fantasy. I’d keep any of the other players listed over him.
I did.. Look at the comment below.
Sorry, posted this as you were posting yours….
In each fantasy b-ball league for every 1st place team, there has to be a 12th place team. I guess this helps explain the absurdly high rankings of Howard, Rose, Melo, Gay, and now Westbrook.
How on earth is Westbrook a near top 30 keeper? FG% and TO count and Westbrook simply is not good enough in the other stats to make up for these deficiencies. He wouldn’t even be in my top 60.
Russell Westbrook was supposed to be a project this year.. He goes out and almost averages 15/5/5 as a rookie. That would’ve put him in the elite company of Michael Jordan, Lebron James, Oscar Robertson, and Magic Johnson.
Westbrook’s FG% and TO’s will improve. He has a very similar game to Wade. I read an article on ESPN that said the percentage of points that Westbrook gets from FTs, inside the lane, jumpshots, etc is almost identical to Wade’s. Westbrook is only 20, he’s still growing. He’s super aggressive, attacks the basket, makes his FTs. His jumpshot will continue to get better.
Not bad for someone who never even played PG in college. His ranking is totally justified.
I guess it all comes down to your keeper league rules and what you expect out of your keeper players. If you want to keep holding onto a guy year after year with the hopes that he will someday be great, then maybe Westbrook is your guy. I’m more concerned about winning now. Westbrook’s Yahoo Season average & total ranks and Last Month average & total ranks do not provide me with the optimism that you have.
Wade and Westbrook’s first year stats are comparable but I do not think we will see similar year 2 improvements with Westbrook. He’s the clear second option to Durant and maybe even the third to Green (who is arguably the team’s second option). Miami was Wade’s team in his 2nd year. You make a good case but the horrible FG%, high TO’s, and low 3pt stats weigh too heavily on his other stats (which are good but not great).
He averaged 16.1 pts, 5.3 reb, 5.6 ast, and 1.2 steals in 65 games as a starter.
Those are amazing numbers.. Especially for someone who was getting on the job training. Even if he barely increases those averages to 18 pts, 5 reb, 7 ast, 1.5 stl, 1 3ptm a game, that would make him so valuable. Who cares that he plays with Durant? That’s supposed to be a bad thing?? Opponents double team Durant and Westbrook will take advantage of that. There is plenty of offense to go around. And I could be wrong, but I feel like Jeff Green has limited upside and is a less injury-prone version of Marvin Williams.
Yes his turnovers are horrible, but they can’t get any worse and I expect him to trim them down to under 3 a game next year. This guy has a more complete game than Rose and I think it’s foolish for anyone to think he can’t improve on FG% and TO’s..
Westbrook has to accept the fact that he can’t shoot worth crap and start driving in for layups like Andre Miller and Rajon Rondo. Otherwise, we’re looking at some horrible FG%.
I think he’s going to average identical numbers to Steve Francis.
Did you read anything I wrote about Westbrook?? Do you even know how he plays? Obviously you don’t. He took 68.7% of his shots from inside 12 feet, and shot 42.4%. Only 31.3% of his shots were true jumpshots. He was a 20 year old rookie, playing a new position! He’ll get stronger and he’ll do a better job of finishing around the rim. It’s so annoying that people think they know what to expect out of a player based on his rookie year. Just because he shot 40% this year doesn’t mean he’ll shoot 40% every year.
Rondo FG%:
Rookie – 41.8%
Year 2 – 49.2%
Year 3 – 50.5%
Tony Parker FG%:
Rookie – 41.9%
This season – 50.6%
Career – 49%
I’m not the least bit concerned about Westbrook’s FG%. His jumpshot will improve and so will his ability to finish around the rim.
Nobody said he wasn’t going to improve his FG%. All I’m saying is that he’ll need to start taking it to the rim even more if he wants his FG% to reach Tony Parker / Rajon Rondo territory. Btw, if you look at TP and Rondo’s late rookie season numbers, their FG% improved significantly during the last months for those reasons.
I saw Westbrook play in person both in November and in April (I have Clipper season tix), and my observation was that he couldn’t shoot for crap.
Rondo’s FG% rookie year.. January – 36.9%, February – 36.9%, March – 37.5%
Yeah, impressive…
Westbrook doesn’t need to take it to the rim more….. He just needs to finish his drives better. And as he gets stronger, he will. Westbrook won the Rookie of the Month award twice last season. Averaged 21 pts, 6 reb, 6 ast in February. He’s a stud, get a clue. He’s going to get better. I could see him being like Tony Parker but with more defense, and his 3pt shooting will probably improve.
And I’m sorry you actually paid money to go watch the Clippers play.
Hey, season tix are season tix!
At least they weren’t season tix for somewhere like Vancouver!
Whooops!!! Said the “V” word!
LoL, the Clippers are indeed painful to watch. But like a lot of people at those games, I was more interested in the opposing teams. I “witnessed” Lebron James come back from a 19 point deficit w/ less than 9 minutes remaining.
As a sports fan, you’ve probably read Bill Simmons article that he devoted entirely to the 2nd half of that game. But in case you haven’t:
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/090311&sportCat=nba
Ashley, you make some good arguments for Westbrook but I think you’re wrong in some of your assumptions. He’s a promising player that could be good (possibly great) but unfortunately that does not always translate for fantasy purposes. People get way too enamored with pts, rb, & ast and often times don’t take into account the other 6 stats (including TO’s) that count just as much as the “glamor” stats. This is why there’s always a fool that takes Howard in round 1 or 2, Melo in round 2 or 3, etc.
Westbrook is a combo guard that has been forced into playing the PG position. He’s not a true PG, so the ast will never be that great. If I’m wrong and he bumps the ast to 8+ a game, then the TO’s will definitely stay the same or increase – not go down like you suggest. On the other hand, let’s say Westbrook decides to score more and pass a little less. His 3pts made could go up to 1 but that would mean he’s taking more 3′s and he is clearly not a good outside shooter. How is this going to improve his FG%?
In year 2 some of his #’s will go up (pts, ast, rb, maybe steals) but the FG% will not improve by much, the TO will stay high, and he is not going to contribute in 3′s or blocks. The only category that Westbrook is really outstanding in is FT%. Unfortunately, the FG% and TO are too detrimental.
I’m sorry but this is not a late 3rd/early 4th round player. It looks more like a Howard-like fantasy player to me. I’ll go on the record now and say that Brandon Rush will be the better 2nd year fantasy player next season.
Once again, it’s really annoying to me when people think a rookie will never improve his flaws. Westbrook did pretty damn good as a 20 year old rookie PG who had no previous PG experience. His TO’s won’t get worse.. You think he’ll average 4+ a game??? He wouldn’t be on the court. He’ll get better at creating shots for Durant and Green. I expect him to average 6.5 assists next year. Who cares if he doesn’t ever average 10 assists a game? He’ll get you 5-6 reb a game and that’s pretty valuable from a PG.
69% of his shots were from inside 12 ft. He shot 42% on those shots. It doesn’t matter if he takes 2.5 3pt attempts next year instead of 1.5 attempts. His FG% will improve the most once he starts doing a better job of making the inside shots. Why do I have to keep repeating myself??
What PG gives you blocks? That’s irrelevant in this discussion. If Rondo and Parker can go from shooting 41% as rookies to 50% now, why is it impossible for Westbrook to atleast shoot 46%??? Give me a break already. And give Westbrook a break.
Buser, are you on vacation or something?? Feel free to chime in…
Speaking of Howard.. Where are all the people who were defending him as a top 10 fantasy player?? I wouldn’t even take Dwight in the 3rd round. I hope people are paying attention to how he’s played the past month.
Ok, Ash, calm down and take deep breaths. You’re not alone on this one.
I, too, think that Westbrook would be worth taking the chance on. Like dasein says in his post about D Howard, Westbrook is a guy you can build around, or use to build around someone else.
His FG% should get better – but even if it doesn’t, if you offset him with other high percentage shooters, it can minimize his deficiency.
I always punt TO’s – anybody playing to win TO’s is either a) not playing or b) benching all of their guys, which in essence loses all the other cats.
So that leaves us with his good, solid overall stats (for a guard) in scoring, RB’s, assists and steals. They’re not the best, but they’re certainly better than most. And they certainly are stats which could compliment any top ten player available.
I’d hang on to him if I was in a keeper league given the option.
I think green can be a Josh Howard. a 20-7-2 ceiling.
Ok Ash, heres the Dwight defense. Firstly, in Roto, I wouldnt take him in the first 3 rounds either because its very hard to win when you come dead last in a category.
However, in H2H you can win punting a category, in which case Dwight is an easy first round pick. A smart manager can build a near unbeatable team around him. I played in a highly competitive 20 team H2H keeper this year; every manager had to have a yahoo rank greater than about 75%. I had the 14th pick and took Howard in the first round, built around him and won the league. So I know it can be done against good competition. I (almost) always lost FT% but I almost never lost Blks and Rbds. In H2H, Id rather have someone who dominates in 2 or 3 cats and kills you in 1 over a ‘safer’ player that doesnt carry you or kill you anywhere. So once the undisputed big dogs are off the board, Dwight is definitely justifiable. The fact that Dwight is high on the consensus rankings here simply indicates that most people are thinking H2H. Not everyone who disagrees with you is stupid.
BTW, hope everyone who was voting for Bynum at 16 has been watching the recent games. A must win game 2 vs Hou, and the guy isnt even on the floor. And before all the excuses about not yet being fit begin, my point is not that he isnt worth owning, but that the 1st/2nd round is way too early to take him given all the uncertainty.
There’s no need to carry this on any longer – let’s just agree that we disagree on Westbrook’s preseason ranking.
Also, let me be clear that I certainly think that rookies can improve on their stats and correct some of their flaws in year 2. I have changed my opinion on Lopez and now hold him in higher regard for next season. I’m also very high on Brandon Rush and think that he can carry over his stats from the last month of this season into next season. Just because I don’t have the same opinion as you about Westbrook doesn’t mean that I don’t understand what I’m talking about. He could be great in fantasy and, if he is, I’ll be the first to admit that I was wrong and congratulate you on your foresight. I guess we’ll have to wait and see on this one….
I’m not saying it’s impossible to win a league with Dwight Howard.. I’m sure there are people who drafted Elton Brand in the 1st round and went on to win their league. But Dwight has two major flaws in FT% and TO’s.. I don’t watch the Magic, so I don’t know what the problem is, but he’s only taking 12 shots a game?? I don’t know if that’s because Dwight doesn’t demand the ball or if it’s because his team will shoot 30 3′s in a game even if they’re only 5-30 shooting.
Shaq was taking about 20 shots a game in his prime. Shaq would be dominating Perkins and Davis in his prime, and that’s what I expected out of Dwight this series.. But 12 pts, 12 reb, 5 TO, 0 BLK, 5-13 FG, 2-8 FT last game??? Wow, that’s honestly pathetic.
And I’m not getting upset over Westbrook. It’s just that Westbrook and Brook Lopez are two of my five keepers and I get defensive when people question their value, because I know how good they’ll both be. They each won Rookie of the Month awards twice.. The only two rookies to do that. So I’m quite content with them.
Magic offense = slow tempo hence low shot attempts
you also need to factor in how often he goes to the FT line as opposed to getting a FGA. howard was 73rd in FGA/g, but 32nd when you calculate (FGA+(FTA/2))/g
Doesn’t change anything.. When Shaq was 23 he was taking 20 shots a game and almost 11 FTs a game.
Does Dwight ever put the team on his back in the 4th quarter? Nope. He’s pretty much non-existant. On his twitter he said “I was not dwight tonite”.. Uhh, yes you were! When is he going to put up 30 and 40 pt games?? In Shaq’s prime he never went more than 2 or 3 games without a 35 pt, 18 reb game.
So I really wish people would stop acting like Dwight is the next Shaq. It was ok for people to say that when he was 18, but he’s 23 now.. He’s about 60% of what Shaq was. People should stop waiting on Dwight to emerge as an offensive force.
If Dwight was truly the leader of the team.. He would demand the ball in the 4th qtr. Instead he just disappears and lets Alston, Lewis, Lee, Turkoglu, and Reddick launch 3′s non-stop. Every Magic game the announcers say “they live and die by the 3″. Well that shouldn’t happen.. If the 3′s aren’t falling, Dwight should take over the game. But that doesn’t happen, the Magic keep shooting 3′s no matter what.
you are the only person that has mentioned shaq (i’m not saying he’s the next shaq, either – he’s 70 pounds too light, for one). howard led the league in 4th quarter FTA, and his 3.3 per game were the most for any player in any quarter
http://www.82games.com/0809/QTR4S9.HTM
I’m not talking about in this thread, I’m talking about in general. People think he’s the next great center. But he’s not that great in real life, and he’s not that great in fantasy.
And don’t say you never hear analysts make those ridiculous comparisons. Even Phil Jackson said if he could have any player in the NBA to build a team around, he’d pick Dwight. Dwight get’s too much hype, he’s overrated. 20 pts, 13 reb a game and incosistency is not that great from someone who is 6’11, 240 lbs of muscle, and super athletic. Maybe one day he’ll average 25-27 pts, but I don’t know what he’s waiting for…
Do you think he’s on his way to being a hall of famer??
Do you see a correlation between Dwight being a horrible FT shooter and also leading the league in FTA in the 4th qtr…? I do. So I don’t think that’s a valid point, assuming you provided that stat to prove that he isn’t irrelevant in 4th quarters.
Offense wins games
Defense wins championships
I think this is the point in the draft where you can take a flyer on arenas (definately risky) but the potential is sky high. Ever watch that clip where he has a 3 pt contest with Daniels i think where he is shooting 1 handed (maybe his off hand also) and still swishes multiple in a row.
I’d rather take a chance on Caron before Arenas.
in roto i’d do caron but H2H arenas can light it up on a sunday and win a match up for you
Yeah, but he could also go 1-10 and kill your chances for the week, not just scoring, but FG%. H2H is as much about consistency as it is about luck – I’d rather take my chance on a guy who has a better chance of getting solid stats (like Caron) than a guy who COULD blow up for big scoring numbers.
Now, if you have a number of players who give you enough padding on the %’s, I think it might be worth the shot. But unless you do auto-pick and are forced to have him, I wouldn’t take the chance.
I think Arenas will play about half the amount of games that Caron plays. Which will be about 14.
Areanas will never go 1-10 on a Sunday. I imagine he has himself on a fantasy team and is far more likely to go 2-25 than 1-10.
YEAH!!!! I Love it!!!
Fantasy Basketball rocks!
Go Gilbert!!!
As we’ve just seen, Eddie House can also blow up on any given night, and you can get him much cheaper
For mine, this is still to early to take someone that hasnt really played for 2 years.
i think we’ve reached the reply limit on the howard discussion… i’m not even disagreeing with you on most of your points ashley, it’s more my playing something of a devil’s advocate. but you just said that a 23-year-old center that led the league in boards and blocks and was DPOY isn’t that great “in real life”. i know he didn’t take much of a step forward on offense, but his priority was defense this season and he followed through. he set a personal goal at the beginning of the season of leading the league in boards and blocks* and then went out and did it. he could end up doing it five more times, too. obviously his offensive game has to improve, and i also think he should be further ahead right now than his is, but two top-25 scoring averages ain’t nothing and you certainly can’t suggest that he’s already peaked offensively
* http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/recap?gid=2008111225
as for his fantasy impact, take just FT% out of the equation and he was 4th in cumulative and per-game ranking per BBM this season (6th for both last year). obviously it’s a massive flaw but you can clearly use him as a h2h foundation. in roto, he’s an obvious and substantial downgrade
I don’t think any other center in the league has more value than
D12 at the moment or even comes close to it, so it seems inevtiable
for people to beleive that he will become the next big thing.
I meant in real life*
This year I played in a h2h points league for the first time. (16 team – super competetive, it was a lot more fun than I thought it would be). In that league Howard scored the 6th most points for the season and averaged the 5th most per game.
I mock a first round Howard selection in Roto, but in this points league I would only take Lebron, Paul, and maybe Durant ahead of him, keeper or not. TOs and missed FTs hurt you in that league, but he gets so many points elsewhere that it doesn’t matter. I think he’s similar in an h2h 9 cat league (although probably not quite as high). Yeah he hurts in two cats, but he helps so much elsewhere that it hardly matters.
b_rad, this was my 3rd season in a 12-team h2h points league with expanded rosters that i compete in with ‘industry’ folks, and i have to say that it’s my most enjoyable league. to be honest, it has me thinking that points is the ideal way to play h2h
Points is usually the way to go when building a H2H team. Usually points also takes care of FG% and FT% as well. Then you can use your last few bench slots to pick up those “specialty” guys.
I’ve never played in just a points league, though. I imagine that the action would be more focused, thus the high enjoyability return.
I may be misreading your comment, but in case i’m not, a points league doesn’t mean you only score real basketball points, a point value is assigned to whatever. like 1 fantasy point per real point, 2 per steal, 1.5 per assist i dunno, whatever. usually there are negative points for missed shots, missed free throws and turnovers. in a league like that howard is gold.
and I highly recommend it instead of 9 cat h2h. it feels less fluky on a weekly basis.
i guess i just used “whatever” twice in that comment. i apologize.
Gotcha – sorry about that b-rad82 – maybe I misunderstood the concept.
Either way, you’re right – less fluky cause it takes the “luck” factor out.
I just posted an article yesterday about the high draftability of Dwight Howard. I agree that you can’t draft him ahead of Paul, but LeBron and Wade were a lot closer than people thought this year. Crafting a strategy around Dwight is easy with BBM’s rankings and the ability to leave out a stat from their formula.
Full article is at http://www.wickedjumpshot.com/2009/05/tecmo-ho-exclusion-drafting-and-dwight.html
The guy w/ Dwight in our 12man keeper league won this year. He was unchallengeable in blocks/boards.
I think Dwight’s fantasy value is even greater now due to the decline of Josh Smith, Camby, and other defensive stat- big men in the NBA. Since a player’s value is relative to the rest of the players during that season, we can say that Dwight was truly top big man value.
Honestly, if you miss out on Dwight, the only way to contend against him in blocks is with guys like Chris Anderson, Turiaf, and other 1-cat contributors. And you’ll need many of them to compete w/ Dwight’s almost 3/per game.
Why did Orlando let Shaq leave? Did he want out or something?
I just don’t like Dwight that much. My opinion won’t change until he averages 26 pts. He’s a great defensive player. I get what everyone keeps saying.. “Punt FT%/TO’s”. You lock up 2 categories and punt 2 categories, what’s the point? I’ll never be in favor of drafting someone in the 1st round who has 2 big flaws. I’d rather have a great all-around player.
A few people in my keeper league read this site, so I don’t want to say what my strategy is.. But all I’ll say is that it’s not hard to accumulate blocks and rebounds later in the draft without jeopardizing FT%.
Dwight Howard is just one of those players who people either have no interest in or think he’s really valuable because of rebounds and blocks.. I happen to have no interest in him. I didn’t win my league, but I finished the regular season in 1st and dominated both FT% and blocks after I got rid of Biedrins and added guys like Andersen and Turiaf.
the lakers had more money to offer shaq, in addition to the LA spotlight
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/nba/news/2001/03/07/sayitaintso_magic/
it’s clear you don’t like D12. we established that a number of posts ago heh. i don’t think anyone would give you issue with not wanting to draft him as early as some other people, but you definitely needed to soften your stance on howard not being any good in fantasy or real life
I find it odd that you set a ppg over/under to like Dwight. Considering all the rhetoric I’ve read, I’d think you would set a ft% goal.
As for what’s the point in drafting Howard in the 1st round, if the manager has a sound strategy to win their league by drafting Howard in the first over any of the other players available, then you do it.
Also, with Howard it’s not as simple to state that it’s a lock 2 and punt 2 situation. You definitely punt 1, as there’s now way around his ft% and volume of ft attempts. But the TOs can be alleviated to a degree. Plus 20+ ppg and 57+% fg combo is arguably one of the best (if not the best) in those two categories among all players, and among centers, very few get over the 1 spg he gets. So no, it’s not just about the boards and blocks with Howard.
As it stands, I’m in the middle with Dwight in regards to fantasy bball. If he’s my best option to win, then he’s valuable. If he’s not, then he’s not.
Because I know it’s not reasonable to expect Dwight to ever shoot FTs at 75% or even 65%. And I don’t expect him to ever average 20 FGA a game like Shaq did in his prime.. But I don’t see why Dwight can’t get up to 15 FGA a game. If he did that, he could easily get to 26 ppg. And if he ever got to 26 ppg, 13+ rpg, 3 bpg, 55%+ FG.. I would overlook his horrible FT% and TOs and consider him an elite player.
65% ft could be reasonable if he puts in the work. I know Shaq did it
for a while when he was training with a special ft coach but dipped
once again when he got rid of him. And D12 could avg more FGA per game
if he were under a different coach/system that’d choose to make run
him but that won’t happen.
But without FT% and TO’s, Dwight is CLEARLY the fourth best player in fantasy. Does that not qualify as elite?
Problem is.. FT% and TO’s are included! Making him the 48th ranked player. If he was the 4th ranked player with TO’s and FT% included, yes, he would be elite.
Stephen Jackson was the #7 overall player without FG% and TO’s.. I guess that makes him elite too.
we’re still on this, eh? dwight was 4th when you just punt FT%, and the top 4 were *significantly* ahead of the rest in terms of impact. it was paul, lebron, wade, howard…… and then everyone else. when you eliminate FT% and TO, the disparity between the top 4 and everyone else was downright immense. you can’t just look at it as a simple ranking of 1-whatever, you need to look at the actual impact by the numbers
http://basketballmonster.com/playerrankings.aspx
btw – when you eliminate FT% and TO this season, sjax was 26th per-game per BBM – where you are getting your numbers ashley?
I think he meant to say if you eliminate fg% and tos, then SJax ranks 7th per game. But, eliminate fg% only or to’s only, he’s only 26th or 16th. So if you’re in a no TO league, punting fg%, then SJax has 1st round value.
yeah i glossed over FG% vs FT%
OK, people, we need to OFF Dwight Howard and move forward with our lives!
I wonder when the Fantasy Cricket season starts?
Anybody up for Fantasy Australian Rules Football?
Sorry! I MEANT to say “GET off Dwight Howard”.
We certainly don’t want to be offing any potential #4 fantasy draft picks!
I’m starting to suspect certain people are on the Nike payroll. Can we expect the same vitriol when KG is up?
Hey, if you get to argue about KG, I get to argue about Tim Duncan!
)
Forget the Big Fundamental, we got the Big Baby! Whoohoo!
Still, if the lottery balls had of rolled the right way in 97..what could have been….sigh….
Yeah! The NBA Draft Lottery Rocks!
Go Lottery Balls!!!
Right, but you’re buying into an illusion that you can win every category. This isn’t like fantasy football, where you’re just going after the most of everything. You only need to win 5-4 every week. When you punt, you make your entire draft stronger because you’re getting better value for your picks.
A question for those who follow the Grizzlies closely:
Do you think that Conley will be able to carry his high level of production after the coaching change into the next season?
I’m not too sure, but I remember reading that the old coach was told to give Conley lots of playing time regardless of productivity, especially at the end of the season. I don’t know if that should affect his draft value or not, but he sure isn’t playing up to his hype yet.
at the time, it appeared that it was hollins himself who wanted to really see what conley was made of
“I want to see if Mike Conley is a basketball player on a high level,” the new coach said. “I’m going to give him a lot of pushing and give him a lot of freedom to make decisions and see if he can do it.”
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/basketball/nba/01/25/grizzlies.coach.ap/index.html?eref=si_nba
in 36 games after feb 1 (shortly after hollins arrived), conley was 53 in per-game rank (BBM)
14.5 pts (.456 FG%, .832 FT%), 1.5 3pt (.410), 3.9 reb, 5.6 ast, 2.3 to, 1.6 stl, 0.2 blk in ~36 mpg
the things that stand out there are 41% of 3pt and 83% of ft. at ohio state, he barely shot or made threes (30% of 1.8 att/g) and made only 69% of his FT
while the grizz slowing things down seemed to work against gay, it seems to work for conley. given his familiarity with a half-court system thanks to years with greg oden, this probably shouldn’t be a surprise
If Boozer is out of Utah, then I’d take Milsap here. Actually, I’d probably have taken him earlier. On the assumption that he isnt, I went with Conley (over Tyrus by a nose).
Gotta say thou, at this stage of a draft, the choices are highly dependant on who your first couple of players were…
to be honest i’ve been wondering how much further down the list it makes sense to go. thoughts anyone?
50?
Yeh, we’re up to 39 already so another 11 cant hurt. 50 is a nice round number. Doesnt matter that it may have gotten a little arbitrary, national security doesnt rest on the results, its just for fun.
yeah 50 was kinda what i had in the back of my mind. sounds like a plan
Aww.. This has been so much fun. I say we do it until Blake Griffin makes the list. hehehe
We still gotta get to the mascots, radio announcers, ball kids…
30!
Wait, what number are we on now? OK, got it, 39.
OK, 30 then!
I know we’re past the amount of keepers my league has, but I still enjoy seeing and ranking all the players like this in general. So I for one will keep voting for as long as you feel like doing it.