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- mbuser: http://busersports.com/forum/v iewtopic.php?f=2&t=1862
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Hey Buser,
Can you explain in a bit more detail how the rating system works. In other words what each columb represents. I can figure most of them out, but how do you come up with the pscore and tscore and how do those go into your overall rating. I’m assuming the fact I’ve only had 2 teams so far will count against me, even tho I have a %96 rating?
tscore is, I’d imagine, team score, and is determined by standard deviations from the mean, it looks like.
pscore has got to be performance score, same deal about standard devs.
so you get (roughly) 0 points for 10 teams and 0 points for 78% performance. If you’re better than that you get positive points, if you’re worse, you get negative points.
you got it
This strikes me as a bit of an unusual way to calculate a rating – a bit too much of a reward for those who play in a lot of leagues. Perhaps the “performance” factor should be given additional weight, e.g. 3:2 (or plug in your own numbers)? Obviously, having done well in more leagues is indicative of better work, and a larger sample size gives better confidence in the results, but right now if you signed up for 1000 leagues and finished dead last every time, you’d end up smack in the middle of the rankings, whereas I think it’s pretty clear that you should be locked into last place.
the most leagues anyone could possibly have at this point is 36, and i’m looking to reward longevity. i’d rather have 26/73% near the top than 5/95%
the reason for the 36 number: fantasy profiles go back nine seasons, 9 X max of 4 teams = 36
I absolutely agree that longevity is something that should be rewarded – you probably need better fantasy abilities to guide four different teams to an average of second place than you do to guide a single team to first. I do think that the current method overvalues it, though, by assigning equal coefficients to both factors. To continue your example, I agree that 26/73% is better than 5/95%, but is 23/69% really better than 17/80%, and 23/57% better than 14/73%? From my perspective, at some point, the extra leagues stop justifying the sub-par results.
In any case, thanks for compiling this – even if I do not necessarily agree with the ranking formula, it’s a good resource to have, and I can just adjust the formula on my own without any trouble for personal use, since the components are provided.
Awesome, thanks for the explanation.
Thanks for getting this set up, I definitely appreciate seeing how I stack up : )
The tscore and pscore columns are types of statistics right? Would you mind posting in layman’s terms what each of them means? Thanks.
ray. we’re thinking the same thing.
Totally, you just beat me to the punch : P
Nice stuff, though would also like to vote for a little clarity with the ratings (never understood yahoo’s performance rating anyway).
seeing as how i am employed in a non-fantasy sports related field, i don’t know how these people have the time to play in so many leagues…
As for basketball, 7 teams & 7 trophies is pretty solid (got injured and had to settle for 2 so-so silvers this season despite winning regular season by 23 f-ing games).
this guy is so fantasy HE gets injured not his players.
hahahaha…
damnit, i have 8 trophies and have been in exactly half of the leagues BUSER has been in… how many trophies does BUSER have?? you got it..16.
So theoretically if I played twice as many leagues I would have the same amt of trophies. I understands golds are better and crapping it up in a league or two hurts your score but with these extrapolations why is my ranking -.02 and BUSER’S is 2.3??????
andy
trophies don’t matter. number of teams and performance rating are the two things that matter.
Buser would no doubt play in tougher competitions. How easy is it to coast through a competitive live draft against people who don’t check after Christmas. You end up no less than 4th by just playing out the games. Buser would be playing against other fantasy ‘experts’ so it’s a lot harder to get the wins up. I’ll suck up to Buser here and say that he knows a fair bit more about fantasy ball than the rest of us. I really like the scoring system.
Hoppy.
Hey. Congratulation for this website. Just one question: should not tscore = rating + pscore? looks like you did rating – pscore instead.
Sorry, I got it now. Rating = tscore + pscore. forget about the comment above.
Haha this is cool I’m like right in the middle! Anyone down to be in a league w/ me? I’m mr. gm (DanFruto)…
Hi Buser,
So, tscore dominates the rating. Is it what you want?
the poll is weighted a little towards quantity over quality, but still a nice feature. should make for some good leagues next year.
I understand quantity counts. The fact is, the highest tscore is (31 games, 3.064) while pscore is (98%, 1.546). Is it necessary to make a more balanced ratio?
what we need more people with lengthy resumes to sign up for the leaderboard and bring that # of leagues number up. and keep in mind, basically the same # of users currently have a tscore >1 as have a pscore >1. and add up every tscore and you get 0.0 and add up every pscore and you get 0.0
It’d help if someone at Yahoo mentioned your undertaking in one of their articles? Say Funston, Evans, etc?
what would probably help at least as much is if people posted the link on message boards they frequent or send it to their leaguemates in recently-completed leagues
Why is the tscore weighted so heavily in the rating? It seems like there are certain owners higher in the rankings as a result of volume rather than performance (and vice-versa). I agree that there needs to be some minimum standard or we could conceivably have an owner with one win in one try at the top of the rankings. But weighting quantity and quality equally doesn’t make sense to me either. At the moment there is no accounting for competition but that is probably not a variable that can be easily extracted from the Yahoo performance ratings, if at all, so it should be ignored. Overall, this is a great endeavor and thank you.
I had these same thoughts. It would be nice if your scores could somehow reflect the strength of your competition, but I don’t expect that is feasible with the data available. However, Im not all that worried about where I rank in this (although it would be nice to see a rise through the rankings over the years). The real value is in creating leagues with motivated competitors. Probably the fact that someone takes the time to sign up to this is a good indicator that they wont go AWOL during the season and will put in a good effort throughout. For this reason, its a great idea.
i would love to be able to quantify level of competition – in part because it would help me out
– but you are correct in that it’s not feasible with the data i have available
Strength of competition…Yeah, I guess I could argue for that. I had a few close matchups this year which came down to the wire (a 5-4 which I won, and a 6-3 which was closer than it seemed and sent me into the third place game).
But every time I start to think about how the playing field could be leveled out with competitors strength thrown in the mix, I’m reminded of three letters – B.C.S.!
Noooo thank, you! I think the stats are weighted just fine with regards to strength of schedule, er “competition”.
I’m sure there are some ideas as to how you could figure in competition strength, but so far everything I come up with seems skewed either one way or another.
I can live with the way the data stacks up just fine (at least until someone shows me something better).
volume definitely counts, since there is such a thing as beginner’s luck. lots of things muddle the discussion too, like whether it is roto or h2h. each year i play in 3 private leagues, 2 with friends, and one with some people i find online. and then i also join a yahoo standard league for old time’s sake.
the public league experience is so varied, and the combination of inactive managers and hyperactive streamers allows some players to accumulate trophies without necessarily becoming better (i.e. more informed, more strategic).
the ‘random’ private league is also interesting since people are always claiming their league is competitive and for active managers. buser’s on to something here where we have a clearinghouse to match up for more quality leagues.
so when do we get the party started? September? October? feedback pls…
yeah we’ll get things started a ways down the road. no real hurry at this point
hey buser, any chance you could use some of your old yahoo connections to mine some statistics from a wider sample? couldn’t some adjustment be made for competition if a player’s rating was considered relative to the ratings of those he played against?
or, maybe yahoo could enhance fantasy profiles so as to publish the average ratings for the players in the leagues you were in! that could then be used to derive a third component (c-score?) in the profile database.
well i’d love it if they did expand the profiles. at this point, we can only wait and see
BUSER YOUR FANTASY BASEBALL TEAM STINKS!!!!!
why would you draft Johan and CC in a league where you have 4 OF 2 UTIL and a CI and MI???
Your lineup is atrocious, you really were feeling it..
long season, chief
exactly, long season to grab feasible SP as opposed to 35 HR 100 RBI 100 R guys… i think you see my pt here.
I guess Mr. Obnoxious will be a regular now… Awesome..
As for your league, I feel your pain with Braun. For the 2nd year in a row he’s off to another mediocre start. But as expected, your offense is weak and your pitching is strong. SB’s looks like the easiest to gain points in since everyone is clumped together.
Maybe you could trade Conor Jackson and Yunel for Bartlett, then move V-Mart to 1B and add John Buck?
Or trade for Taveras?
And maybe get a power bat for one of your top pitchers, because Braun and V-Mart aren’t enough.
Atleast you’re not as bad as “BigNoise” Brad Evans.. God, what a fool. He predicted 35-40 homeruns out of Ortiz this year, and when I told him he was crazy he told me to go play with my Hannah Montana dolls. But there he is, sitting in dead last.. It must suck to know that you’ve been eliminated from contention 2 weeks into the season. He’s team is pretty hopeless.
I traded Hamilton and my 9th rd pick for V-Mart, Nelson Cruz, and his 6th rd pick a couple days ago. I really hope that V-Mart and Nelson keep it up, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re both irrelevant by July and Hamilton has 20 homeruns. This is the guy who dropped Hamilton after 14 games last season, so I guess it’d be kinda ironic if I made the same mistake 2 weeks into this season. But last year he had 15 rbi’s in 14 games with a BA over .300.. This year he’s struggling, apparently he’s lost a lot of plate discipline. So hopefully it’ll end up working out for me.
Not that I’m really worried about m-bus taking this advice, but Conor Jackson and Yunel for Bartlett? So he could free up space for v-mart at first? And then fill the empty catcher spot with John Buck? I mean no offense Ashley, I often agree with you, but these suggestions go from myopic to oedipal (as in eyes gouged out). John Buck is hot, but he’s a higher risk Kelly Shoppach who strikes out even more often. Bartlett is a far better real life player than fantasy, Yunel will at least help not hurt in 4 cats. I would honestly rather have either Jackson or Escobar alone over Bartlett. Might as well just pick up Josh Anderson or Carlos Gomez for steals, even Izturis if you really want a MI.
With the Hamilton trade you bought high and sold low, which works when current trends continue, for your sake I hope they do. I am invested in Cruz this year so I hope they do for my sake too.
ashley, i was also surprised you would post something like that. btw, i actually drafted bartlett and packaged him with ichiro for granderson and yunel before the season started
in general, i’m not looking to make knee-jerk moves based on ~45 AB for my hitters. from the outset, my plan has been to trade for power down the road, but i’m going to let things shake out a bit further for both my offense and my arms
I don’t think trading marginal players would be considered knee-jerk, but I understand. Just get another speedster! Easy points. It’s like adding Andersen in basketball, you can walk away with blocks. Add someone like Taveras and you can do the same with SB’s.
Just trying to help instead of straight-up bashing you like pskpinky, sorry!
I was just throwing out ideas. Buser’s team is the Kansas City Royals of that league, no point in trying for power. I guess I have to remember that Conor Jackson has some value in Buser’s league, I personally cringe thinking about him being on my team. He doesn’t have to trade those specific players. I was just suggesting he target stolen bases since he has a bunch of singles hitters on his team.
Yunel is just someone who I can’t stand watching as a Braves fan. He swings at the 1st pitch almost every atbat, hits a ground ball to the shortstop, and flips his bat. A trifecta of very annoying traits. He led the majors in groundouts last year, almost 53% of hit atbats. It’s obnoxious enough when hitters flip their bats when they hit a homerun.. But to flip your bat every time you hit a stupid ground ball?? Are you serious? I just think he should trade Yunel for someone who will steal 20-30 bases.
As for the Hamilton trade.. I’m really not that concerned. I also got a 6th round pick, which is basically a 1st rd pick after our 5 keepers are drafted.
My team:
C Víctor Martínez (Cle – C,1B)
1B Adrián González (SD – 1B)
2B Ian Kinsler (Tex – 2B)
3B Kevin Youkilis (Bos – 1B,3B)
SS Troy Tulowitzki (Col – SS)
OF Ryan Braun (Mil – OF)
OF Carlos Quentin (CWS – OF)
OF Nelson Cruz (Tex – OF)
Util Raúl Ibañez (Phi – OF)
SP Josh Johnson (Fla – SP)
SP Derek Lowe (Atl – SP)
SP Clayton Kershaw (LAD – SP)
SP Roy Halladay (Tor – SP)
RP Jonathan Broxton (LAD – RP)
RP Brad Ziegler (Oak – RP)
RP Scott Downs (Tor – RP)
BN Jacoby Ellsbury (Bos – OF)
BN Ricky Nolasco (Fla – SP)
BN John Danks (CWS – SP)
BN Tommy Hanson (Atl – SP) NA
So I can take on the “risk”, if you want to call it that. I mean it’s not like Hamilton is a former crackhead (no offense; I love him) with one solid season under his belt. Who is to say it’s not possible for Cruz to outproduce him straight up? Not to mention I got Victor and a 6th rounder.
I was also offered A-Rod and Scott Baker for Youkilis and Halladay this afternoon. I accepted. I’m more concerned about that trade biting me in the butt than the Hamilton trade, but the thought of A-Rod in that launching pad is enticing. And I’ll have Kinsler, A-Rod, Quentin, Braun, and Kershaw for keepers.
We’ll see, 14-4-2 and 1st place so far. Hopefully I didn’t screw up my team’s chemistry with those 2 trades!
It’s totally possible that Cruz outproduces Hamilton, but I would bet on Hamilton. He’s ridiculously talented, and at least has one solid season under his belt (about 3/4 more than Cruz). You did get V-Mart, and your team looks solid after the trade(s). It would be tough to pass up the A-Rod trade in a keeper league.
How many teams in this league?
you can’t be afraid to take risks… that’s how you win leagues. what you’re saying about cruz is exactly what people said about hamilton last year. and quentin. and ludwick. they had no track record, but they all had potential.. just like cruz.
so is it too hard to believe this cruz can be this year’s quentin or hamilton?
i don’t have cruz on either of my teams. he was so hyped up as a sleeper that he became overrated in my mind, and i wasn’t going to risk a 7th or 8th rd pick on a guy who had never produced in the majors. but so far, it looks like things are clicking for him.
10 teams, 5 keepers.
Cruz doesn’t HAVE to outproduce Hamilton single-handedly, I’m just saying it’s possible. But even if he finishes with 25 homeruns, and V-Mart finishes with 20.. That’ll combine for more than Hamilton, plus I’ll have two 6th rd picks.
So far so good.. Last night Cruz and V-Mart combined to go 5/9, 2 hr, 4 rbi. Hamilton was 1/4.
10 teams leagues are gayer than deepanalbuddies.com. why dont you start preachin when you are in a proper league. wusss
that’s a pretty impressive roster. how did you end up with those guys?? but i bet since it’s a 10 team league there are a few other stacked teams too. no “P” slots? you could use a 3rd closer, but i’m sure you’re waiting for the day that bj ryan’s arm falls off. other than that, you don’t really have many holes.
i don’t like the a-rod trade. you paid for name recognition. halladay is one of the best pitchers in the league and youkilis is a machine. but the way the new yankee stadium is playing, it looks like a-rod could hit 60 homeruns without being juiced up. so it could work out for you.
Last year I had Braun and Lincecum as 2 of my keepers. In the draft I was either going to draft Kinsler or Brian Roberts.. Whoever went first, I’d take the other. Luckily Roberts went before Kinsler. Then I added Hamilton and Quentin off of FA.
I don’t really like the A-Rod trade either, Scott Baker is horrible. But I’m already getting a couple offers for A-Rod so maybe I can end up getting more in return.
I’m overrated…
This is definitely cool stuff. It’s like when Madden Football started an online community and ranking system..lol.
I realize that this question is baseball related but I was just wondering, how good do we think Matt Wieters is going to be this year? I just picked him up off waivers because I’ve read so much hype about this guy. I also have Joe Mauer who is reportedly returning May 1st.
really, really good. like .290 and 18 HR in 125 games good
I was curious – how skewed are the rankings for players who play only roto or only h2h? I’ve never played roto, so I wouldn’t know which format is harder or easier to compete in – but I would guess that if one or the other was “easier” (for lack of a better word) to get a higher performance rating, that would skew the rankings a bit, don’t you think?
I’ve noticed that Yahoo doesn’t track which teams were roto and which were h2h for each profile, so I figure that would not be a usable stat on your registry. But I think it would be interesting to see which players rank the highest playing roto and which rank highest in h2h, especially since some players play both and whichever league type they are stronger/weaker in could pick them up/pull them down the ranking list.
Not that I’m complaining or anything. Like I said, I don’t know how difficult it is to get an 80+ % performance rating playing just roto – but i DO know how hard it is to get an 80+ rating playing h2h (without streaming that is!).
It was just a curious thought.
h2h is ‘easier’ to win because of the luck factor. you can win the league championship with a middling team as long as you get hot at the right time, stream effectively, or something of the sort. in roto, you have to have the best team for the entire season, something that isn’t influenced much by luck
with that said, i’m not sure settings skew the rankings, as long as those at the top have been involved in 20+ leagues. if you have that deep of a resume, it’s probably a pretty good representation of your skills. i’m MUCH more interested in eventually being able to qualify performance ratings with the level of competition in your leagues. now THAT is what can skew the rankings
H2H strategy –
buser,
im in a H2H 12 team 6×6 league (OPS,IP)and have a strategy for the playoffs. basically, i have 4 1/2 closers now (morrow, ziegler, downs, corpas, and marmol). With IP i prefer SP but there’s not uch out there except Wakefield (im not buying). My strategy though is to trade all of them for the playoffs. Right before I the deadline I will trade them for SP or most preferablly SP with RP elgibility i.e. joba, scherzer, etc. Then I should lock up most of the important categries (W, K, IP) while only surrendering SV.
In the long run osing Saves every week will kill you but for the playoffs I think its stupid not to adopt this strategy.
I think this works for 5×5 too but not as well. Any thoughts????
well certainly it works better than for 5×5 because the extra cat favors SP. so you potentially corner 3 cats, as you mentioned, and can hope you pull out ERA or WHIP, which isn’t out of the realm of possibility if it’s a great staff. a calculated risk to punt saves, but not a terrible one. if you run into a team with great two-start starters and a few closers, though, it may backfire
so do you endorse this strategy in 5×5 H2H???
i was hoping for the corpas of 07 but that doesnt look possible. dropped em for Wakfield, is it possible for a sinkerballer to get filthier with age?? I dont see it happening….
NEXT QUESTION:
Im thinking its time to buy low on some SP – Hamels, Liriano, Cliff Lee (if still possible) and maybe even James Shields are on my radar. Your thoughts on these guys??? Anyone other SP’s jump out at you as buy-low candidates?
I have a mini man-crush on Bedard this yr, I think he may be back. Do you??? I tried trading benji molina for him but that was a no go. his owner is bullish on him.
not really in 5×5, because the only category you really ‘guarantee’ yourself is Ks. even Ws can be subject to luck in a given week. i’ll get back to those pitchers later
Im adding Peavy to the list…
Peavy, Hammels, Cliff Lee, Liriano, Shields, Bedard, Baker.
Buy low on these guys? Anyone else???
it depends on what buy low means. if you can trade a 15th round pick for peavy, it’s a no-brainer. do i think hamels will improve? yes. cliff lee i want no part of. baker you can probably wait until his owner drops. what about shields and bedard make you think you can buy low on them right now?
shields hasnt done much but looking at last years numbers again i think i can find similar waiver fotter than his name is worth. so yes indeed, no buy low on shileds.
bedard is alittle more complex… he is a late round pick an injury risk and on a team that many know is over achieving at the moment. this adds up to a lot of question marks/risk involved with the guy. I dont see the 12 and 13 k games of years past but I do think there is some value in a guy like this. I think packaging a closer for him or a decent hitter ie a torii hunter/vernon wells/corey hart (torii always starts strong) for him would be a good speculative risk for Bedard if you need pitching.
Therefore, I say buy-low but beware!
Heres the squad 12 team H2H 6×6 money league…im in first buy a good margin but the pitching is suspect. Just dropped smoltzy for davis and looking to grab gregg once he clears waivers.
any stratedgy you think will help to sure up my SP. I like mcclouth to trade but i know at some point he will be great to spell jones/cruz and insurance for when soriano hurts his leg.
C Bengie Molina
1B Miguel Cabrera
2B Chone Figgins
3B Kevin Youkilis
SS Alexei Ramírez
OF Nelson Cruz
OF Alfonso Soriano
OF Adam Jones
Util Adrián González
BN Nate McLouth
SP Tim Lincecum
SP Ubaldo Jiménez
RP Carlos Mármol
RP Brad Ziegler
P Brandon Morrow
P Scott Downs
P Yovani Gallardo
BN Josh Johnson
BN Ricky Nolasco
BN Doug Davis
BN Tim Wakefield
DL Chris Carpenter
it might be worth shopping davis and wakefield to see if anyone will pay a premium for what they’ve done so far. otherwise, that’s a pretty strong squad top to bottom
thank u mr buser. further questions to follow on a newer thread…
btw aint n0b0dy taking wake in this league. davis f0r gregg, that just happened!!
Yeah, I can see that – again, back to the old “strength of schedule” argument.
As I said before, if someone could figure a way to include level of competition in a fair way, I’d be game to see how things shake out. Otherwise, balance it out as fairly as possible. And I do agree with you – it would definitely skew the rankings more.
Maybe a few “Busersports.com” leagues, similiar to Yahoo’s “Winners” leagues, would help with regards to level of competition?
i’m in, i wanna go up against the big boys!!!
that’s not exactly what i mean. what i’m hoping is that, at some point, an individual’s performance rating will also reflect the performance ratings of the managers in their respective leagues. meaning, if you win a yahoo public league against a bunch of novices, it doesn’t mean quite as much as placing third in a league of veteran managers with impressive performance track records. that’s asking yahoo a lot, though, so i’m not getting my hopes up
with that said, we absolutely are going to have busersports.com leagues next season, for those looking for the good competition. it makes sense to match up people with similar performance records or get a good mix from up and down the list, depending on who is interested
Oh I do understand the idea of a “quality” third place showing vs. a win over a bunch of novices.
At least with busersports.com leagues the possibility is there to track that – it may not be as automatic as tracking wins and losses or performance ratings, but the potential is there.
Looking forward to next year!
thank u mr buser. further questions to follow on a newer thread…