One of the first subjects to tackle in the fantasy NBA off-season is keeper rankings for the coming season. Rather than simply post a list of my own – or at least prior to posting a list of my own – I thought a better idea would be to compile a consensus list through a series of polls.
The methodology will be simple – I’ll post a poll with eight or ten players to choose from, and the player with the most votes gets the nod for that position. The plan for now is to leave polls live for 24 to 48 hours – if there is a run-away winner, we’ll come in on the short side, and if it’s close between two or more players, we’ll leave it open a bit longer. As for settings, assume whichever you personally prefer – the rankings should skew towards whatever settings the consensus uses, as well.
Note: closed polls immediately show up on the “Polls Archive” page, so you’ll be able to track voting there as we move along.
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sheesh it’s a coin-flip....
pretty hard for me to even consider anyone other than LBJ
I’m assuming this is for Roto. If H2H you need to put Dwight Howard on the list. I wouldn’t put him higher then Wade or Durant anyway but if H2H he is a better keeper then most on that poll.
the first post has been updated for settings, and yes D12 will be an option in the next poll
The only problem with LBJ is that ft%, which wasn’t as much of a problem this year. If you think that 2008/9′s ft% was a trend, not an outlier i think it’s Lebron hands down. Even if you think it’s an outlier he’s still probably number one, but there’s a case for Paul.
Great idea, and yeah LBJ’s a runaway #1. It’s scary to think how good he’ll be in 2-3 years, or even 5-10 down the road. I’m a huge MJ fan, and glad to see him inducted today. I still think he’s the best ever (sorry Wilt), but as much as I hate to admit it, Kobe is right on his tail, and Lebron could leapfrog both of them when it’s all said and done. Paul will probably go down as the best PG ever, but I don’t think he’s in their realm.
Paul is great, but I have to point out another recent HOF inductee as the king of that mountain. If Paul finishes his career leading in all time statistics on both sides of the ball then I’ll give it to him, but Stockton’s consistency and longevity (22 missed games in 20 years (and 18 of those in one season)) will most likely never be rivaled.
In his waning years Stockton took ice baths up to his neck after every game to soothe the pains of so much mileage. The Siberian Orthodox faithful perform a feat similar to Stockton’s but once a year on Easter, and I’ve seen it as an expose in the Geographic twice in the last 5 years. If no visuals come to mind imagine something like this to look forward to from October to May…
http://faithinfocus.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/21ice2_650.jpg
I think that sort of dedication is beyond rare, and getting scarcer. Sorry for all the hot air by the way, but best PG ever is a touchy subject for me.
stockton was a real warrior – nice post. check out the comparisons after their first four seasons:
JS (age 26): 8.6 ast, 2.1 stl
CP: (age 24): 9.9 ast, 2.4 stl
and only 1,210 games behind stockton at this point, or 14.8 seasons of 82 games each. to put it in perspective, if paul remains healthy and productive through about age 37 (the 2023-24 season), we’ll probably be talking about him reaching stockton’s milestones
Quality over quantity. I respect Stockton’s mileage almost as much as I respect his 15,806 total assists, but hands down Paul is more talented. Look at the best PGs best years:
Stockton ’90-’91 (7th year): 17.2 pts, 14.5 ast, 2.9 rbd, 2.8 st
Magic ’88-’89 (10th year): 22.5 pts, 12.8 ast, 7.9 rbd, 1.8 stl
Isiah ’84-’85 (4th year): 21.2 pts, 13.9 ast, 4.5 rbd, 2.3 stl
Paul ’08-’09 (4rd year): 22.5 pts, 11.0 ast, 5.4 rbd, 2.8 stl
*Oscar ’61-’62 (2nd year): 30.8 pts, 11.4 ast, 12.4 rbd
If I’m assembling the best team ever, assuming there isn’t a chance in disneyland Robertson could post that line today, give me a 28 year old Paul at PG any day.
CP3 for me. As great as LBJ is, what’s he going to do better than he already does? He’s had as good a season across the board as you could possibly hope for in the future, and CP3 still easily beats him as the #1 roto option. In H2H, I’m willing to consider LBJ.. but in roto, I’ll take CP3 for both his better overall value, and his positional scarcity (something you learn to appreciate a lot more after a season of Delonte West and Beno Udrih as your PGs). Anyone voting for a player other than these two guys is either playing some exotic format, or needs to join my league. (-;
I see it the other way, LeBron could still get better, but I feel like we’re seeing CP3′s ceiling. It also seems that there will be a bunch of good PGs available next year so position scarcity isn’t as big a factor as it has been. Finally, LeBron is indestructable but I wonder how long Paul can keep up carrying a team like this before something goes.
Its still close though, and you wont go far wrong with either.
I went with CP3, probably just because I was lucky enough to draft him this year and he has absolutely carried my team in so many categories. I like the position scarcity argument too. Lebron is the man though.
looks like we’ll have #1 and #2 mapped out with this first poll
and i do think it’s at least very close if you only play roto in terms of LBJ v CP3
I am going to jump on deron just because I don’t wanna roll with the #1 PG
. If boozer gets traded or released or w/e, how will it affect derons pts output?
I say he goes up a bit, but Deron’s game IS getting people involved, and Milsap will absorb most of the Boozer shots anyway. I’ve been Jazzin’ up this message board more than most probably appreciate in the last 10 minutes, but I seriously hope that they boot Boozer.
He is such a smug personality, and I don’t see him improving in any way throughout the rest of his career. His carefree defense absolutely destroys the whole defense for the Jazz, and his propensity for dribbling in the key is maddening. If you watched that Laker’s series last year it was exploited to the max as Phil and Fisher were all over it time after time after agonizing time.
Boozer should become someone else overpriced starter, and hopefully his cap space can keep Turkish Delight, and the Paperboy on the roster with a little room leftover for another big. Those two both work and come back with a more multifaceted game every year and Boozer has peaked, and his ego is driving everyone downward. Finally back to your query, I think that with Booz personality out of that locker room, Deron becomes more authoritative as the leader and with the confidence of knowing it’s his team, I think they regain the swagger they should have had this year… and DWill scores a little more.
I also hope they draw the Nuggets in the first round. They need to put Harpring on JR to pester him for an ugly 10 minute 6 foul performance that keeps him off of his game. Every time the Nuggets have beaten the Jazz in recent memory it has had nothing to do with Melo or any star, and everything to do with JR and Kleiza.
My apologies to everyone who dislikes the Jazz by the way. I don’t live in Utah and have noticed they rank slightly below Uwe Blab at number 2,978 on the list of things people want to discuss when basketball comes up.
Boozer sitting this year hurt him in more ways than I think even he realizes. Deron got up after being hurt and lit it up, and the booze, though he is a consitant double double, just looks lost sometimes out there. It’s like he’s playing Boozer ball not Jazz ball ya know? Deron Williams is going to be fun to watch next year. He’s a huge sleeper on my draft Radar. Boozer… eh. off the radar…
*small sample size alert* you guys got me wondering what deron’s numbers have looked like with the various PFs starting this season
booz (22g): 18 pts, .470 FG, 0.8 3pt, 4.8 FTA, 3.1 reb, 11.2 ast, 3.2 to, 1.2 stl
sap (35g): 19.5 pts, .475 FG, 1.1 3pt, 5.7 FTA, 2.9 reb, 10.4 ast, 3.4 to, 1 stl
other (6g): 22.2 pts, .480 FG, 1.7 3pt, 5 FTA, 1.7 reb, 9.8 ast, 3.5 to, 1.7 stl
How do you not take Lebron James?
24 years old with no major injury history with numbers that just keep getting better across the board.
CP3 comes in at a distant second and im in agreement with dasein about CP3 reaching his ceiling. Until the Hornets get some more help around him, he will still put up ungodly numbers, but an increase in his across the board production should not be expected.
okay looks like a clear 1 and 2 were established right off the bat, so we’re on to 3. i feel bad not picking wade, but how can you not take a 20-year-old durant? he could be shooting 90% from the line at a high volume at some point and if the AST:TO ratio can improve even a little, we’re talking insane numbers down the line
I agree that Durant is a potential monster Buse, but looking slightly past number 3 or maybe right at it givin’ the possible injury risk with most of these players, I feel that Howard needs to be an option as well. If you know on draft day that your punting FT and possibly TO’s, but you have a commanding REB, BLK, FG advantage headed into round two then an imposing team can be assembled. There are a lot of late round guys that can pad Howard’s strong stats and then you only need two more categories to fill with a lot of midround picks. You would also have less worry that your stud horse is going to falter on the track.
whoops, just saw this post. Agreed (see my post a little further below)
I can certainly see the possibility of durant increasing his
pts/rebs/ast and slight increase in FT% but its hard for me to
imagine that he will ever reduce his TO’s or increase his D stats.
He is reminding me of the old dirk
9-category roto, right?
we’ll just not specify and call it consensus settings. since the majority skews towards 9-cat h2h, that’s likely to be the way this list skews
(check the poll archive and you can see how the settings poll ended up)
Durant moved up a lot but I just can’t put him ahead of D Wade. Still, what a great year fro him he should go top 5 in most leagues next year
i was forced to pick Durant over Wade simply because of injury risks.
Agreed.
I thought about it, but couldn’t do it… D Wade is the man. I think Durant will fall in the 4th spot though. Did you guys watch Durant play the Lakers? k , maybe I’ll ctach some flack but I thought Kobe struggled guarding him. Shooting right over him.
kobe is 6’6 with a natural wingspan, durant is 6’9 with an unnaturally long wingspan
For H2H I take Superman at 3.
Last time I used it, my ranking system has him as the no.3 player when FT% is ignored, which you can safely do in H2H. This comes from ecent scoring and steals, a huge boost for FG% and dominance in Blks and Boards (OR and DR). Plus he’s young, getting better every year and industructable, which is extremely rare in a big man.
D-Wade is close, but I’m still not convinced he doesn’t have a glass jaw. However, if its Roto, then Wade gets the number 3.
For fantasy purposes will someone please tell Nate McMillan to pick up Portlands pace. Roy is a Fantasy superstar already let alone if he ran at the pace most of these players run at
before you mentioned that i hadn’t realized that the blazers were dead last in pace
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2009.html
Between Lebron and CP3, CP3 is the one who is clearly playing at his ceiling. Lebron could still improve in so many areas.
Chris Paul has limited talent around him, it would be hard for him to ever average more than 11 assists a game, and it’s apparent he’ll never develop a great 3 pt shot. He’ll also never get more than 3 steals a game.
Lebron on the other hand is shooting 3′s at 34% this year compared to 31% last year, and he could still continue to improve his 3pt shot. He has increased his FT% from 71% last year to 77% this year and he could potentially become an 80%+ FT shooter in the future. Increasing his 3pt% and FT% would easily put him over 30 ppg. Lebron could continue to improve his shot blocking and get up to close to 2 blocks a game, with 2 steals a game.
When people are saying Lebron could average close to a triple double for an entire season while scoring 30+ ppg, how can anyone (Crawly) suggest he’s reached his ceiling and has no room to improve?? His potential is unlimited, he’s the clear #1 keeper in my mind.
As for #3, I went with Durant. I think he’ll end up being the greatest offensive force in the NBA, as early as next year. Durant is 6’9″ with a 7’5″ wingspan, he has a quick shot and can handle the ball as well as a guard. When his game is on, he’s basically unguardable. He improved his 3pt% from 29% last year to 43% this year. I don’t expect the 3pt% to continue to increase, but hopefully next year he’ll shoot more 3′s while maintaining 40+%.
Durant is 20 years old!!
If I was in Year 1 of a keeper league with the #3 pick, I would take Durant over Wade. I think the majority of people would also take Durant in that situation. Wade is amazing, but what are the odds he’ll continue to play 75+ games every year?? I wouldn’t want to take that chance.
CP3 has a lot better chance of getting 3+ steals per game then lebron has of getting 2 blocks per game
Chris Paul is in his prime right now.. He averaged 2.7 steals last year, 2.8 steals this year. I have him in my keeper league and if he got even more steals, that would be great. But realistically, I don’t ever see him averaging more than 3 steals a game. That would be ridiculous. There are only 4 people in the NBA averaging 2+ steals, Wade is 2nd at 2.3/game.
Regardless, in my opinion CP3 is playing at his ceiling.. His numbers are almost identical to last years numbers (fewer 3′s unfortunately). I expect him to maintain these numbers for a few years, I can’t see him significantly improving on his overall numbers.
Lebron on the other hand could potentially improve his numbers in any category… And that’s the point I was trying to make.
And let me edit my statement about the #3 pick in a keeper league since Wade is leading in the poll…
I think Buser, and most fantasy experts, would take Durant over Wade with the #3 pick. Wade is someone I’d actually avoid next year. The difference between Wade and Lebron/Durant is that when you watch Wade, you can see that he’s playing every game like it’s his last.. He leaves everything on the court, which is good, but after the game he looks so physically and emotionally spent. But when you watch Lebron and Durant play, they make it look so effortless and way too easy..
So it just makes me wonder how much longer Wade’s body can hold up. His game revolves around attacking the basket, and that takes a major toll on him.
Wade = AI?
I would definitely take Durant over Wade for a keeper, they will be close next year if Wade stays healthy, but beyond that Durant will leave Wade in the dust.
I also agree with your analysis of Paul. And I may be the only one, but I attach a little bit of injury risk to Paul as well. Less than Wade, but more than Durant and James.
not that paul’s ceiling is a bad place (and not that i’m implying that’s what you are implying). he was comfortably the #1 9-cat player last season and is comfortably #1 this season, as well. with that said, when peja goes away he could end up shooting more 3pt – he’s made .359 of his attempts over the past three seasons, and that’s not too shabby. also, if his FTAs go up, that’s going to help matters, too. i do agree that he’s got little place to go but down in AST and STL though
in regards to wade v durant, one thing that influenced me but i didn’t mention earlier was the potential for a wade injury. you did a really good job of spelling that out
Just a reminder that Wade is already 27 years old, which is when players usually hit their prime. Durant at 20 yrs is much scarier to me. I guess this question can only be answered depending on the length of the keeper league. For the next 1 or 2 years, I think Wade will still be a better fantasy player than Durant (esp. in H2H). But Durant could be much more dominant for the following 10 years after that.
I play in a 5 year H2H keeper league that started this year. I’d say the top 5 for us would be:
1. Cp3(24) – Steals & assists are hard to find. His FG% is better than Lebron and he only gets 2 rebounds less.
2. Lebron(24) – He’s arguably easier to build around than CP3. However, if Lebron does in fact get even better, he’ll also play less minutes since the Cavs will be blowing out every team.
3. Dwight(23) – With the decline of Camby/J-smooth, he has become the CP3 of big men (blocks/rebounds). Also, most importantly, he’s healthy!
4. Durant(20) – His ceiling is scary, but he doesn’t seem to get many “rare cats”.
5. Wade(27) – He’s amazing, but also old. And even though he’s been healthy this year, his style of play doesn’t give me too much confidence.
Depending on the length of the Keeper League, I would say for the next three years that Wade would be my choice to follow Lebron and CP3. Barring any major injury setback it would make the most sense.
Wades numbers mirror Lebrons and although the injury concern for his knee is still there, he has proven this year that his explosion, lift, and finishing around the rim are similar to that of when he took Miami to the title. I would like to point out that even though he missed significant time with the injury, he wasnt exposing himself to the rigors of an entire NBA season either.
The choice at four, for me, is not as clear. I hear alot of talk about Durant and I understand that he is young and extremely talented but looking at his numbers and what the Oklahoma City team as a whole brings to the table, im not sold.
Dwight Howard would be the guy I would have to take. Due to the fact that he will win you boards and blocks by himself most weeks, and if he can improve just a few percentage points on his free throws, you could see the scoring average rise around to the 25 or 26 ppg range.
The only major disparity in the numbers that favor Durant are three pointers and FT%, all the other categories are similar or dominated by Howard.
poll #2 created clear 3 and 4, so we’re on to the next poll. this should get interesting
I think #5 will come down to Granger and Dwight..
I went with Granger because he gives you a little of everything and doesn’t hurt you in any categories like Dwight does.
Dwight’s TO/game are trending down though
i chose granger as well. most people probably don’t realize that, if you punt AST and STL, granger is the no.1 player. when you punt FT% and TO, howard is no.4 overall
interesting aside: D12 has also had two games with 7 AST and two games with 5 AST among his past dozen games
How about if u only punt FT% Matt. I bet Dwight is still No.3. I think he’s getting unfairly labelled as a TO liability. Hes got better this year, and according to the yahoo rankings, is equal with our top 2 picks CP3 and LBJ on 3 TO per game. Also, 2 guys that are already off the board- Durant and Wade average more TOs, and there was no mention of tanking with them. Just putting that out there…
whoops, u had him as 4. sorry
what’s the difference between those players you mention and howard? he’s a big. even durant’s AST:TO was roughly 1:1 (0.91) and there’s hope that he’s got some upside there. with dwight, you are looking at an AST:TO at around 0.5 and not much hope for significant improvement. check out BBM and you’ll see he’s dead last in the league in cumulative AST:TO to this point, and yao is the only player even close to challenging him
If we’re talking Ast/TO ratio, then of course you are correct. I was making a comment on plain old TO’s, based on Matt’s earlier post “when you punt FT% and TO, howard is no.4 overall”. My point was that in terms of TO’s alone, Howard is no worse than the other big names.
but he’s much worse than his positional peers in TO and much worse than every other player in the league in terms of AST to offset high-volume TO. i wasn’t using AST:TO as a scoring category, i was using to illustrate that you can’t look at his TO in a vacuum
Then why not Blk:TO to avoid a vacuum?
Dont worry, I know what you’re saying- the TO’s are extraordinarily high for someone who doesn’t actually spend a lot of time with the ball in his hands. But to my mind, this is why we produce multi-cat aggregated rankings, so we don’t need to agonise about points like this. We can just plug in the numbers and see whether or not the positive contributions outweigh the negatives. And in the case of a bloke like Howard who dominates some cats and kills u in others, the aggregate outcome is really gonna depend on what cats ur playing with. So maybe a hard bloke to place in an ambiguous ranking like this.
Anyway, I hope I’m not overstepping the mark with all these replies, but arguments like this is part of what makes fantasy fun for me. Love the site Matt.
no worries of course – that’s what we’re all here for
you (and wtolson) have a point in that we’re really not picking good battles, although it still can be productive. with that said, howard’s BLK:TO ratio is just behind guys like brook lopez and al horford and just ahead of big Z and j.o’neal
s’up with Kobe? I mean is his support staff nerfing his numbers? Just curious. This has been a huge learning event for me, and much thanks to everyone here, seriously. Two years ago I hadn’t even heard of CP3 so thanks for puting up with my sometimes rookie insight, but I do love this sport. Anyways, I picked Kobe for 5 ’cause he’s well, Kobe. He seems to be assisting more this year and kinda being more team minded, am I wrong? I wasn’t around during the days of his “Kobyisms” but I haven’t seen much of that lately. Why Grainger over Kobe? thinking long term?
and isn’t Grainger a candidate multiple DNP’s too? this is the first year has missed multiple games multiple times ’cause of injuries so was this year a fluke? he has been solid up until now.
“He seems to be assisting more this year and kinda being more team minded, am I wrong?”
heh. that sounds just like the reasoning for his MVP trophy. all of kobe’s counting stats are down slightly, including AST
kobe is my pick over granger at #5, even for keepers. kobe’s counting stats are down, sure, but that’s because of the talent level around him. granger has shown what he can do when he has to carry a team, which is fantastic, but his numbers as a standalone go-to guy are only slightly better than kobe’s with a ligher workload, and in my mind granger’s more of an injury risk than kobe. plus, kobe’s always one teammate’s injury away from scoring 35 a game, and can go off for 50-60 any night (major h2h bonus there).
Personally, I think the #5 spot is between Kobe and Granger.. I said Granger and Dwight earlier simply because so many people here seem to think Dwight really is Superman and I knew a lot of people would be voting for him. But Dwight has too many flaws to be the #4 overall pick. I wouldn’t want my #4 overall pick to be a burden on two categories week after week.
But since we’re talking about keeper leagues, I’d much rather take Granger/Kobe #4 instead of Dwight, then take Brook Lopez in the 3rd or 4th round (I have no clue what his draft projection will be in a keeper league next year). If Lopez even progresses just a little bit next year I think he could easily average 16 pts, 9 reb, 2+ blocks with 55% FG, 85% FT… And I’d personally rather have Granger/Lopez than Dwight and whatever decent SF you’ll get a few rounds later.
So between Kobe and Granger… Granger has the higher upside, 2.5+ 3′s a game and 1.5 blocks is a great combo, but he’s an injury risk. Kobe is about as reliable as they come, he’ll continue to put up great numbers and rarely misses games, but he’s past his prime and has to share the ball with all the other talent on the Lakers.
In a regular league, I might take Kobe.. But in a keeper, I’d probably take Granger just because I love the high 3′s and blocks.
Most of the other top 3pt shooters are simply scorers and do little else.. Guys like Michael Redd and Ben Gordon.
also, i just have to add that i think a debate over the top 5 or so “keepers” is just plain silly. all of them are huge fantasy assets that over any given stretch can absolutely carry a team.
debating over mid-tier keepers is much more interesting imo :]
Last time I checked, rankings start at #1 and not #20…
I’m sure we’ll get to “mid-tier” keepers in the next couple days.
Tonight’s line is the reason why I wouldn’t take Dwight at #5..
10 pts, 4 reb, 2-7 FT after 3 quarters. The offense doesn’t run through Dwight on every possession like it does for Kobe/Granger/Deron, so he can disappear every now and then when they don’t feed him the ball enough.
i personally loved having dwight on my team this season. luckily in my h2h league they skipped on him until i snagged him in the third. next year i would consider taking him with a mid to late second round pick but i have to agree, dwight at five won’t give you the monstrous presence that people like to think he has. he’ll kill you in FT%. he single handedly made me non-competitive there but that in turn opened up other avenues for me to strengthen my team. but i digress…
howard may be an incredible pure-volume guy but i would rather have 2-3 all-around stronger-but-less volume players like brook lopez and lamarcus aldridge in his place and take a more polished pure-volume player, like deron williams, with the fifth pick
well obviously. i’m just saying that the argument of #1 v. #2 is pure semantic tomfoolery. the value either brings to your team is immense…having lebron or wade or kobe or paul is pretty much awesome no matter what. but i suppose calling that discussion out is kind of ironic seeing as semantic statistical tomfoolery is what fantasy sports generally are in the first place.
im looking for rebounds…anthony randolph, thompson, nocioni, marc gasol, turiaf, dalembert, haywood, ryan anderson. im also looking to dominate points, steals, and possibly turn overs. im looking for outsiders opinions.
those are the guys with the highest rebounding totals over the last week
anthony randolph, jason thompson, or marc gasol. each of them come with some faults but the more upside than the rest.
anthony randolph, aside from some fouling tendencies, isn’t the most trustworthy golden state player but on the other hand will log heavy minutes with golden state having such a thin roster from injuries.
jason thompson is a straight up fouling disaster on some nights, but is really bringing his game together otherwise. and as an owner during his current and last hot streak i must say: he was OKAY before, border-line playable, but still a bottom dweller on my roster. now he is getting more shots and more importantly blocks and steals, so much to the point where i’m looking forward to reaching for him next seasons draft.
and finally marc gasol. his inconsistency in rebounding numbers can be maddening but he brings it together with good %’s and takeways/denials. (p.s. he double-double pts/assists earlier this year!)
the drop-off between these three and the rest is pretty significant in terms of guaranteed playing time and potential lines. turiaf and dalembert may be better blockers (i won’t mention haywood, i consider him an end-season enigma) but a-dolph, thompson, and gasol#2 will snatch the ball at a higher clip.
tomorrow i have a logjam. i’m starting:
steve nash
kevin durant
david lee
dwight howard
troy murphy
i have two utility slots available. who do i play?
ramon sessions, anthony randolph, mike conley, steve blake, brandon rush
i’m leaning toward anthony randolph (opponent is the league leader in rebounds) and one of the point guards. probably not ramon sessions so i can try and make a run at one of my weaker categories in three points made. conley is facing an intimidating orlando defense that can shut him down, but a less than intimidating individual match up in rafer alson. steve blake i don’t trust because of last nights disappearing act. and brandon rush at toronto seems like a risky gamble that has the potential for a huge payoff.
finals week… *sigh*
Toronto is one of the worst teams in 3pt defense, so Rush could actually be a decent play here. I’m in a similar situation, and decided to go with Conley. Yes Orland is a rough match-up, but the way he has been playing lately, I couldnt justify benching him. Definetly like Randolph vs Min with the other space.
I went with Conley and it looks like it’s paying off.
At the beginning of this year, Amare was the consensus #3 pick (keeper-wise). His value only dropped because of Terry Porter. Now that the coaching style has changed, we should expect Amare to compete at the level he did last season. I pick Amare over Granger. In H2H, Dwight should get the win though.
Danny Granger as #5 for me, please – top-notch existing value, room for growth and improvement, good all-around value (particularly if he eliminates some bad shots and gets that FG% up a bit). I like Howard, but any player that kills off a category outright needs to be bumped down my board – I’ll be happy to get him around picks 8-9, but I’m not going to shed an tears if he’s gone by then. Bryant is getting a little old for keeper leagues (and keep in mind his wear-and-tear is higher than people who actually played in college) and is certainly too old to have any real upside. Williams has very little upside left in my book – he should remain a quality contributor, but the sort of guy you want later in the first round, not the middle part. I like Brandon Roy enough to seriously consider him as the #6 pick – of all the players in the poll sans Granger, he has the most growth potential. Amare is obviously the X factor, and I won’t fault anyone for picking him 6th – but I won’t fault anyone for passing on him at #10, either.
So, for me, with no specific Roto/H2H bias, it probably shakes out as:
#5 – Granger
#6 – Roy
#7 – Howard
#8 – Williams
#9 – Bryant
#10 – Amare
Tough to choose between Granger and Deron, but i will go with Granger, i think he will only get better.
Elsewhere i0m in the finals right now, have to get a pickup for Ginobili, had Carney but now he is injured too
.
What do you guys think about Will Bynum? Worth a pick-up?
Well after reading all the hate dwight howard got throughout this
thread, the most positive attribute assosciated with howard i think
is his durability.
Look at the DNPs and injuries suffered by all of the other elite
PF/Cs.
For the efficient PF/C’s that everyone would replace with howard down
the draft such as David Lee, Troy Murphy, Brook Lopez, Lamarcus
aldrigde they were nothing but backup PF/Cs to your elite PF/Cs at
the start of this season and you can only test your luck by hoping
you end up with breakout PF/C like them after you passed on dwight in
future drafts.
Where does Al jeff belong on these polls. He is young, has been improving every year, and is probably the best back to the basket scorer in the game and only 24. I know the injury obvously is a concern, but if he comes back healthy i think he should be in the discussion for late 1st round around the Dirk – Devin harris area. It’s hard to find dominant big men Dwight, Yao, Bosh, Dirk (except he doesn’t block), Duncan (old though) and Al Jeff are the only ones i can think of. Maybe Gasol but if bynum returns healthy his big man stats will go down.
yeah al jeff is one of the next guys to show up in the polls for sure. as for where exactly he places, we’ll find that out eventually
Al Jefferson is just a better version of Zach Randolph in my eyes.
Jefferson is 23/11.. Randolph is 21/10..
When you add their average 3ptm, assists, steals, and blocks on the season, it equals 4.1 for both of them.. With Jefferson averaging 0.6 less turnovers a game.
Torn ACL + conditioning concerns in the past.. I’ll pass. Jefferson is good, but not a top 10 keeper. Probably 15-20.
don’t add assists in your total of 4.1, cuz it’ll mess it up, assists aren’t worth as much as 3ptm, steals or blocks. Zach averages .6 more assists which isn’t worth much compared to .6 from a combo of steals / blocks / 3s.
glad to see a tight poll this time around and good discussion. this is what i was hoping for. a few things:
- keep add/drop, sit/start questions in the weekly rundown post please. we’re going to be going pages deep here as it is
- *spam* please take the time to click on an ad or two in the upper right any time you think of it
I drafted Deron at No. 6 and No. 11 this year, and was mocked for taking him so high. Does anyone know if he’ll finish around the top 10? He’s certainly helped me lately as both of my teams with Deron have made the finals (H2H, 9cat).
38th overall and 27th in per game average in Yahoo, 29th average on Basketball Monster. His age, marked FT% improvement, and the fact that his production isn’t really expected to dip much makes him a decent mid-to-late-first-round pick in a keeper league, but don’t expect much more.
deron qualifies as ‘really good’ but lackluster 3ptm and stl have held him back from being ‘great’