For this exercise, I’m using average draft position info – from a mash-up of six sources found here – and posting blurbs in the same format that I used for a typical hoops Rest-of-Season Ranks post. Two subsequent posts will discuss SS and OF, SP and RP.
Catcher
1. Brian McCann (45.51) – I’m in the camp that’s passing on the top four catchers, assuming there’s no discount, and grabbing something a bit later
2. Russell Martin (45.73)
3. Joe Mauer (53.1) – this ADP number is falling a bit as he won’t be on the field for opening day
4. Geovany Soto (60.08)
5. Victor Martinez (74.49) – I’m expecting a rebound and don’t mind taking V-Mart at this point; playing 1B should help keep him healthy
6. Ryan Doumit (112.66) – the bat isn’t a concern, but playing a full season is
7. Chris Iannetta (141.88) – very good numbers in the minors, you’ll want to be on board when they fully translate
8. Matt Wieters (142.28) – likely to start the season in AAA, but he’ll hit plenty after inevitable call-up
9. Bengie Molina (152.13)
10. Mike Napoli (173.1) – Pat Burrell-like numbers from a catcher if he could just get and stay healthy
11. Jorge Posada (179.07) – making progress but will be rested a ton either way
12. Pablo Sandoval (201.89) – will go earlier in competitive leagues; should be among position leaders in G, AVG, R, and RBI
13. A.J. Pierzynski (214.87)
14. Dioner Navarro (218.35)
15. Kelly Shoppach (225.83) – will play some while V-Mart plays 1B but don’t harbor visions of last season’s 21 HR
16. Ramon Hernandez (228.04) – more intriguing option than most at this point thanks to his new digs
17. Yadier Molina (234.88)
18. Ivan Rodriguez (240.92) – not a bad situation, but there’s not much left in the tank
19. Jeff Clement (247.5) – very good minors numbers, but his scope of opportunity is shrinking; Watch List candidate
20. Chris Snyder (247.82)
21. Kurt Suzuki (249.63)
22. Brandon Inge (264.29)
23. Gerald Laird (277.21)
24. Jason Varitek (277.45)
25. Taylor Teagarden (286.04) – likely platoon saps the value of TT and Salt; Watch List candidate
26. Kenji Johjima (287.39) – slated to be full-time catcher at this point and has two solid seasons to his credit
27. Jarrod Saltalamaccia (307.04) – likely platoon saps the value of TT and Salt; Watch List candidate
28. Jesus Flores (307.72)
29. John Baker (NA) – my favorite late target in two-catcher leagues hit .290/.370/.430 in final 231 games in Triple-A
First Base
1. Albert Pujols (3.3) – eight-year career averages of .334, 118 R, 40 HR, 122 RBI, 6 SB; he’s the #2 overall pick
2. Miguel Cabrera (7.85) – final 106 games of 2008: .300, 25 2B, 29 HR, 96 RBI; he’s #5 to Sizemore’s close #6 in my first round
3. Ryan Howard (11.46) – .251 AVG may have been unlucky, but I’ll pass on him at #9 and try to trade for him at the break
4. Mark Teixeira (12.62) – averages over the past five seasons: .295, 100 R, 35 HR, 118 RBI, 2 SB
5. Lance Berkman (18.5) – averages over the past eight seasons: .304, 101 R, 33 HR, 110 RBI, 8 SB
6. Prince Fielder (24.29) – was out of shape and dealing with a lifestyle change and a contract squabble last season; not so this year
7. Justin Morneau (25.48) – a fantastic consolation prize if you miss out on other top options
8. Kevin Youkilis (39.79) – decent chance we saw his peak last season, so I’m only drafting at an unlikely discount
9. Adrian Gonzalez (43) – not a lot of downside, but home park limits upside, as well
10. Adam Dunn (66.94) – negative AVG impact (.236, 517 AB) as large as Pedroia’s positive (.326, 653 AB) last season
11. Chris Davis (72.51) – monster power potential and great run-producing situation; someone will reach for him in competitive leagues
12. Garrett Atkins (74.05) – he’ll be worthy of this spot if he’s not traded, but it’s not leaving room for downside
13. Victor Martinez (74.49)
14. Derrek Lee (76.07)
15. Carlos Pena (80.13) – ADP suggests some upside from 2008 numbers that I just don’t see at this point
16. Joey Votto (81.95) – pass on Atkins and Lee and take Votto; goes a bit earlier in competitive leagues
17. Aubrey Huff (85.28) – he won’t end up on my teams unless he’s around 10 picks later
18. Carlos Delgado (102.06)
19. James Loney (138.46) – a “nice” player, but I’d rather have Conor Jackson
20. Jorge Cantu (148.7) – a nice discount here even if he comes back to earth a bit
21. Jose Lopez (159.14)
22. Conor Jackson (163.15) – will go right after Loney in competitive leagues
23. Paul Konerko (192.88) – dealt with injuries early in 2008, then hit .270 with 13 HR in 54 games after the break
24. Pablo Sandoval (201.89)
25. Carlos Guillen (211)
26. Jason Giambi (214.7)
27. Nick Swisher (216.45) – numbers should recover, relatively speaking (.255, 25 HR)
28. Hank Blalock (219.63) – the numbers will be good for as long as he can stay on the field
29. Mike Jacobs (223.05)
30. Adam LaRoche (233.72) – career .179/.274/.325 in April (357 AB), .290/.351/.523 otherwise (1,965 AB)
31. Casey Blake (237.84)
32. Casey Kotchman (240.9)
33. Billy Butler (244.28) – fantastic minors numbers, and upside is what you want late
34. Todd Helton (259.6) – intriguing flyer following back surgery; one season removed from .320 in 557 AB
35. Ryan Garko (266.3)
Second Base
1. Ian Kinsler (13.62) – two-season, per-162 game averages of 128 R, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 32 SB tempered by 121 and 130 games played
2. Chase Utley (14.77) – four-year averages of .305, 110 R, 29 HR, 104 RBI, 14 SB; looking well enough to argue him over Kinsler for the #12 pick
3. Dustin Pedroia (22.65) – I’m not expecting a massive drop-off but I have a hard time pulling the trigger at that price
4. Brandon Phillips (30.54) – note that his numbers depend on his destroying LHP (career .294/.343/.502, .249/.294/.394 vs RH)
5. Brian Roberts (40.18) – good, reliable numbers but not someone to reach for
6. Alexei Ramirez (51.45) – 95 games between slow start and poor finish: .327, 50 R, 15 HR, 58 RBI, 10 SB
7. Dan Uggla (64.9) – trade him at the break: career .278/.350/.531 before, .243/.329/.440 after
8. Robinson Cano (92.2) – slow starts, big finishes in consecutive years; career .303/.335/.468 hitter at age 26 (2,218 AB)
9. Chone Figgins (98.31) – would challenge for SB crown in a healthy season, but that’s just wishful thinking
10. Howie Kendrick (131.02) – my target (again), as I can’t stop obsessing over career .360/.403/.571 minors line
11. Mark DeRosa (144.26) – at age 34, DeRosa has nothing but downside from career season; take a young player instead
12. Mike Aviles (151.21) – this is an ideal spot to grab him; don’t overpay for the late bloomer (age 28)
13. Jose Lopez (159.14) – you have to love .297, 41 2B, 17 HR in an age 24 season for a 2B
14. Kelly Johnson (170.64) – two-year averages of .281, 89 R, 14 HR, 69 RBI, 10 SB; drop from 2nd to 6th could affect impact
15. Rickie Weeks (200.73) – career 162-game averages of 111 R, 19 HR, 28 SB, despite .245 average; still worth the flyer
16. Placido Polanco (210.6)
17. Kaz Matsui (226.41)
18. Orlando Hudson (236.98)
19. Felipe Lopez (239.6) – sexy late pick with career season-highs of 23 HR and 44 SB has favorable situation atop D-Backs’ lineup
20. Freddy Sanchez (246.01)
21. Skip Schumaker (249.25) – should gain eligibility early in the season; a solid deep-league target
22. Alexi Casilla (254.65) – good minors resume includes more speed than he showed last season; one to watch
23. Clint Barmes (256.35) – worth the late flyer because of his home digs but only expected starter by default
24. Mark Ellis (256.88)
25. Ian Stewart (260.87) – great offensive upside for fantasy purposes at 2B but fighting for playing time in real-life
26. Akinori Iwamura (264.1)
27. Aaron Hill (288.88) – 2008 was a washout (concussion), but 2007 wasn’t a fluke (.291/.333/.459, 47 2B, 17 HR)
28. Blake DeWitt (305.88)
29. Mike Fontenot (331.43) – likely starter vs RHP for the Cubs has pop (12 HR in 479 career AB)
30. Asdrubal Cabrera (NA) – youngblood with good recent minors numbers hit .320 after the break last season
31. Emmanuel Burriss (NA) – polar opposites in terms of speed (tons) and power (zilch); still battling for a regular gig
32. Jerry Hairston Jr. (NA) – versatile vet was great in 261 AB last season but might only start vs LHP
Third Base
1. David Wright (4.3) – four-year averages of .311, 106 R, 29 HR, 112 RBI, 22 SB; he’s going #3 overall if it’s my pick
2. Miguel Cabrera (7.85) – final 106 games of 2008: .300, 25 2B, 29 HR, 96 RBI; he’s #5 to Sizemore’s close #6 in my first round
3. Alex Rodriguez (12.39) – this number has fallen to closer to 30 in recent weeks, which is reasonable for 135ish games
4. Evan Longoria (18.62) – ask yourself how much better you expect him to be than Chris Davis before you pick this soph this early
5. Aramis Ramirez (37.63) – averages of .302, 87 R, 32 HR, 105 RBI in five full Cub seasons; power dip over the past two (27 HR)
6. Kevin Youkilis (39.79) – decent chance we saw his peak last season, so I’m only drafting at an unlikely discount
7. Russell Martin (45.73)
8. Chipper Jones (56.2) – great numbers and a number of DL stints are two locks; .332 and 120 game averages over the past 4 seasons
9. Chris Davis (72.51) – monster power potential and great run-producing situation; he’ll go closer to 60 in competitive leagues
10. Garrett Atkins (74.05) – he’ll be worthy of this spot if he’s not traded, but it’s not leaving room for downside
11. Aubrey Huff (85.28) – he won’t end up on my teams unless he’s around 10 picks later
12. Chone Figgins (98.31) – would challenge for SB crown in a healthy season, but that’s just wishful thinking
13. Ryan Zimmerman (104.95) – still only 24 and hit .306/.370/.455 after return from shoulder injury in ’08
14. Mark DeRosa (144.26) – at age 34, DeRosa has nothing but downside from career season; take a young player instead
15. Jorge Cantu (148.7) – a nice discount here even if he comes back to earth a bit
16. Edwin Encarnacion (149.29) – he was my pick 147 in the F&F league; best-case and worst-case are miles apart
17. Adrian Beltre (157.7) – three-year averages of .270, 83 R, 25 HR, 88 RBI, 11 SB could certainly be worse
18. Alex Gordon (157.91) – someone will reach because of 2006; maybe it should be you
19. Mark Reynolds (198.85) – love the guy in h2h if you are punting AVG
20. Pablo Sandoval (201.89)
21. Carlos Guillen (211)
22. Melvin Mora (212.84) – check out the crazy splits from last season; he won’t be on any of my teams
23. Ty Wigginton (216.63) – as it stands, it’s another year of not-quite-everyday play in a few different spots
24. Troy Glaus (218.9) – Glaus will begin the season on the DL but makes plenty of sense this late if you need HR
25. Hank Blalock (219.63) – the numbers will be good for as long as he can stay on the field
26. Mike Lowell (220.32) – he’s back, but tough to get overly-excited for an age 35 season fresh off of hip surgery
27. Casey Blake (237.84)
28. Kevin Kouzmanoff (238.09) – fantastic minors numbers but home park working against him; he’s my late target
29. Felipe Lopez (239.6) – sexy late pick with career season-highs of 23 HR and 44 SB has favorable situation atop D-Backs’ lineup
30. Jed Lowrie (242.92) – at the very least, he’ll get the starts at SS to begin the season
31. Clint Barmes (256.35) – worth the late flyer because of his home digs but only expected starter by default
32. Chase Headley (259.99) – good minors numbers and starting in the OF but no shock if he’s still a year away
33. Ian Stewart (260.87) – good offensive upside for fantasy purposes but fighting for playing time in real-life
34. Brandon Inge (264.29)
35. Blake DeWitt (305.88)
36. Brandon Wood (333.01) – prodigious power numbers in the minors, but big-time K’s (27%) don’t project well right now
37. Mark Teahen (NA) – what you really should be tracking is if he wins the Royals’ 2B gig
38. Joe Crede (NA) – plenty of AB available if he can stay healthy and reasonably productive
39. Scott Rolen (NA)
40. Bill Hall (NA)
41. Dallas McPherson (NA) – 42 HR in AAA last season at least gets a mention
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sheesh it’s a coin-flip....
The bad news concerning Mauer just means that idiots are drafting him in the 5th rd instead of the 4th rd.. It baffles me. 9 homeruns and 1 SB..? Bad back.. Definitely 5th rd value..
Glad I traded for Iannetta after reading that article about Clement.
How is Fielder a vegetarian and still 270 lbs??? He’s like Hurley from “Lost”. He doesn’t look any slimmer to me. I’m not a big fan.
Matt, do you read much? You should read “Talent is Overrated” by Geoff Colvin. I think anyone who enjoys sports would really like that book, and it’s an inspirational book in general. Look it up on Amazon if you’re interested.
So does this mean you’re going to transition into a baseball site also?
mauer’s value is obviously in his ability to win the batting title, which you have to figure is compromised by his particular surgery. but at full capacity, you don’t have to be an idiot to consider an earlier pick on him
yeah, the mariners don’t seem in a hurry to get clement fully involved
admittedly my book reading is sporadic at best, but thanks for the recommendation. but what made you bring it up?
you should be expecting a transition in the coming weeks/months, but i’m not sure ‘into a baseball site, also’ really is the description i’d use
you’ll have to forgive my need to stay completely vague
I think average is overrated in h2h.. You could have Mauer and I could have Napoli, and the week that we played each other Napoli could hit 5/18 with 2 homeruns and 5 rbi while Mauer goes 6/22 with 0 homeruns and 2 rbi. So I’ll never understand why people take a catchers in the first 5 rounds, they aren’t difference makers. McCann is probably the only exception, because he should be good for around 23 hr, 90 rbi, and .300 avg.. And possibly Weiters in the future. But if Mauer won’t be hitting 15 homeruns with 15 SBs, I’ll pass and let another manager (who in my opinion is an idiot) spend the whole year regreting taking him in the 4th/5th rd.
I thought of the book because I was looking through the list of players.. At the guys who are overachievers and underachievers. Before I read the book, I thought the greatest athletes were great because of their natural talents. But after reading it I realized that they were the greatest because they trained harder than anyone else.
Jerry Rice trained so hard that whenever other players trained with him in the offseason, they would get sick. People would write the 49ers trainers asking them for Rice’s workout details, but the trainers wouldn’t release the information because they were afraid people would hurt themselves trying to do what Rice did.
Tiger Woods works out 2 hours every morning, then spends 2 hours on the driving range, then 2 hours chipping and putting.. Plays 18 holes.. Then he goes and practices on the range and putting green for another couple hours. Everyday.
Sports, and life in general, makes a lot more sense to me after reading that book. Guys like Youkilis and Pedroia aren’t physical specimens or the most naturally talented, but they give 110% everyday and it shows.
Then you have bums like Josh Smith.. I read an article in the AJC a couple weeks ago about the Hawks’ poor FT shooting. The FT coach was talking about Josh Smith and he was like, “I only have less than an hour to work with him at practice before he’s done for the day, but he tries really hard and I’ve seen him make 90 out of 100 at practice before.” Give me a break.. If Jordan ever had a game where he made 6-10 FTs, he’d probably shoot 500 FTs after the game. But “JSmoove” doesn’t do that. So he’ll never be anything more than a gifted athlete with upside. Every year you’ll get the standard 16 pts, 7 reb, 2.5 ast, 2 blk, 45% FG, 25% 3pt, 68% FT (56% this year) from him and nothing more. Because he puts in the mandatory practice time and nothing extra. Who knows how good he’d be if he ever trained as hard as MJ, Kobe, Lebron, and Wade do.
He’s lazy and he knows he can get by with the bare minimum.
It’s funny how I try to be brief but end up writing a report. But anyways, it’s an interesting book and it’s not entirely about sports. It talks about what separates the most successful people in various occupations from everyone else.
And yeah, I didn’t mean “baseball site.” I guess I was asking if the site would be going through a baseball phase during the summer, until basketball is relevant again in the fall.
yeah mauer and other AVG-centric players take a hit in h2h baseball, kinda like efficient hoops players can in h2h hoops. i often forget to consider both sides of that because of my utter disdain for h2h baseball
don’t forget though, mauer had 183 R+RBI last season, compared to mccann’s 155 (mccann had two more RBI than mauer but 30 fewer runs). over the past three seasons combined, mauer has him beat in the same regard 475-452, while hitting .325 to mccann’s .300. obviously mccann hits lots more HR, but that’s one category
and yeah anyone that has reached the professional ranks is fantastic at what they do and probably was the best HS player most people watching them at the time had ever seen. some people get to the ‘pinnacle’ and coast since they ‘made it’, but others don’t and that’s what sets them apart. and guys like rice, woods, jordan are the perfect meeting of talent and work ethic
Yeah and WR are the biggest diva athletes. Most of the top WR prospects are busts. Some guys like Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald are physical freaks, humble, and have great work ethics.. But they’re the exception.
2001 – David Terrell/Koren Robinson top 10 picks.. Steve Smith 3rd rd, Houshmanzadeh 7th rd.
2002 – Stallworth #13
2003 – Charles Rogers #2.. Anquan Boldin #54
2004 – Reggie Williams #9.. Wes Welker undrafted
2005 – Troy Williamson #7, Mike Williams #10
2006 – Marques Colston – almost the last pick in the draft
We’ll see how Crabtree does. But would anyone be surprised if he ends up being a bust? Probably not.
WR is clearly about work ethic.. Jerry Rice was an All-State WR in HS, but colleges overlooked him. Went to a tiny college, All-American.. Set numerous NCAA records.. But a lot of NFL scouts said he wasn’t fast enough to be a top WR.
40 yd times are so overrated. Troy Williamson is fast enough to be a top WR….. clearly. Because I guess being a WR just means you run deep every single play.
And yeah, Mauer has solid runs/rbi’s but I think his best days are already behind him.. As a catcher atleast.
What does ADP stand for?
average draft pick?
average draft position
I have a championship calibre team up and down. My only weakness is that I ended up with Gordon at 3B, and Barmes backing him up. What can I expect outta Gordon this year?
i’d say .275/20 is reasonable and leaves plenty of room for optimism
In rotisserie, it’s about players’ floors first and foremost. Give me the discount on Beltre, Abreu and Ibanez because in the end, you know roughly what you’re going to get from them (not to mention, the exceptional value).
In rotisserie, you don’t chase saves. You pass on them then get them cheap. Roughly half the league will make closer changes or some adjustment (to accommodate injury, for example). When the top and middle tier stoppers come off the board, no need to fret; that’s when you nab late-round value. I started the 2008 campaign with Gagne and C.J. Wilson as my closers. Needless to say, strikingly unimpressive. Working the wire, I managed to finish the season tops in the category, and it wasn’t even close. Of course, playing against Behrens and Pianowski, all I had to do was make the appropriate adds accordingly, but that’s really beside the point
In head-to-head, target bats. Firstly, hitters start approximately six games per week; pitchers, elite or not, start one perhaps two.
Furthermore, should said pitchers get rocked, their value *for that week* is that of a starter buried in the O-Rankings. Conversely, should an undrafted or emerging pitcher put together a string of five or six solid starts, their ranking for the month is equivalent to that of a top 10 stud. Goaltending in the head-to-head fantasy game shares the same parallels.
You can play for up to five hitting categories, as opposed to the four pitching categories (for starters).
Finally, the difference between a Round 2 hitter and a Round 11 hitter is substantial. In terms of pitching, you can still draft a quality ace at tremendous value in the tenth or eleventh and build a formidable staff from there.
Matt, or someone else, I am in a keeper league where you keep your best 7 players regardless of draft pick…there’s no penalty for keeping the very best guys. My keepers are:
Al.Ramirez
A.Rios
R.Cano
E.Longoria
J.Upton
R.Howard
Adam Jones
I’ve been offered Josh Hamilton for Evan Longoria. In our league we start a lot of different positions so Longoria’s position scarcity isn’t a big priority…it’s really just a matter of who will be the better player over the next few years.
Should I do the deal?
boy that’s a tough one. do you like one player more than the other? seriously, it can come down to that – from a keeper perspective, i think these two are neck and neck
It’s funny that you put it that way…I had to act before I got your advice, but I read an ESPN write-up from a year ago on Josh and his return from drug addiction. I knew about his struggles but had never heard about it in his words. He’s an inspirational guy. I asked the other owner and he agreed to flip me a 5th round pick for an 8th round pick to get the deal done.
So to answer your questions, yes, I like one more than the other; yes, I was able to make it not so neck-and-neck, and yes I made the deal!
Looking forward to seeing what the two-man wrecking crew of Ryan Howard and Hamilton can do in the power categories!
nice job .. good luck
Matt.. The guy who has Caron Butler in my league absolutely despises him, rightfully so. After the season he said he’d give me Caron for my 6th rd pick.. What do you think? I think I’d probably rather have Rondo.
He traded me his 7th rd pick, Brand, and Stuckey for Tyrus, Conley, and my 12th rd pick. He regrets it, so I was thinking maybe I could trade him his 7th rd pick back for Caron. And maybe swap like a 10th rd pick for a 12th rd pick.
Caron is good, but he seems to think the season only lasts 60 games. I don’t know if I want to deal with the headache his current manager deals with at the end of every season.
But his offer has given me an idea. I think I’ll post that the #1 overall pick is available for a keeper and see what other offers I can get.
well i imagine i’ll draft butler before rondo next season, but his ADP is going to slip next season and the plan would have to be to hope you could trade him if he were healthy around mid-season. that’s not going to be a comfortable feeling
Hey, Matt, love the site and all the input. I’m in standard 5×5 H2H Keeper League w/ 12 teams. This season we’re keeping 8, and I’m pretty up in the air about my last two spots. My top 6 are Ryan Braun, Tim Lincecum, CC Sabathia, Prince Fielder, Alfonso Soriano, and Brandon Phillips. My potential guys for the last two spots are Corey Hart, Troy Tulowitzki, Victor Martinez, and James Shields. Right now, I’m leaning towards Hart and Shields…but I could see how 3 keeper pitchers might be overkill, and OF is a lot deeper than Catcher or SS. Do you like either Tulo or VMart to bounce back far enough that they’d justify one or both of my last spots?
to be honest i like all 4 of those players as keeper-worthy in that format so something of a ‘good’ dilemna to have. it’s fairly tight but i’d rank them (1)hart (2)tulo (3)vmart (4)shields